Housing 2014 Mid-Year Update: The Rich Have Their Cake And Eat It Too

Logan Mohtashami, Benzinga Contributor

As the housing selling season winds down with the end of spring and the beginning of the summer months, it is a good time to get informed perspective of housing demand for the year. This can be gleaned from three major metrics; mortgage purchase applications,  existing home sales and new home sales, year over year (YoY).

Six months of data for the first indicator, mortgage purchase applications, shows applications significantly down compared to the same period last year.

1. Mortgage purchase applications are down -16% YoY.

(All charts from Professor Anthony Sanders)

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2014/07/02/still-dead-mortgage-purchase-applications-decline-16-yoy-refinancing-applications-up-0-1/

mbapnsa070214

Mortgage demand has been soft since interest rates rose in May of 2013. Even though we saw the typical seasonal pick up on total volume for the first half of the year, year over year purchase applications have been down double digits.

Because the interest rate spike that started in May of 2013 lead to a larger decline in purchase applications than one would expect due to seasonality, the YoY purchase applications comps for the second half of 2014 will look “less bad”. If we don’t see a single digit YoY decline in applications then demand is truly weaker for the second half of the 2014.

2. Existing Home Sales – 5% YoY

5 months of data year to data.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2014/06/25/death-valley-days-mortgage-purchase-applications-fall-again-down-18-since-last-year/

ehs062314

Cash buyers continue to prop up existing home sales, staying above the 30% level of total buyers of existing homes . Historically cash buyers are 10% of the market. Cash buyers are up slightly from last year, but the total number of homes purchased with cash is lower due to the smaller number of distressed homes on the market. This YoY metric shows how soft the demand is from traditional (mortgage) buyers.  First time home buyers as a percentage of all mortgage buyers have been in a range of 26%-29% for 2014, below their historical norm of 40%.

We can expect 1 to 2 more months of increasing sales before the dampening effects seasonality kicks in, as happens each year. 2013 had a  peak Seasonal Annual Adjusted Rate of Sales (SAARS) of 5.39 million. I project  a peak SAARS of  5.14 -5.21 million in the up coming sale reports but even with more homes on the market, we will not see growth from last year.  Look for total sales to be between 4.78 million to 4.93 million.  There is not enough demand to have even a flat year in sales, year over year, even with increased inventory.

3New Home Sales +1% YoY


http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2014/06/24/case-shiller-home-price-index-increased-10-8-yoy-in-april-new-home-sales-increased-18-6-in-may/
nhs062414

The last metric, YoY New Home Sales are up! — but only by 1%. This sector is primarily driven by the wealthier buyer and is composed of only about 15% of first time buyers. I expected this number to be higher because  historically new homes are about 1/6th of the market and in the last year they were only 1/10th of the market, so there was lots of room to grow. The weakness in this sector can be explained by the fact that the Median Income to Median Price (MI2MP) for new homes is well above what is was during the housing bubble years. These homes are just too expensive for many main street America buyers.

 Having said that, we should finish the year with total growth of 8-12% YoY in new home sales. There is also growth in housing starts, sales and permits– boosted by rental construction demand and demand from wealthy buyers. With the inventory of existing homes rising, some buyers in 2015 will be weighing the comparable value of  existing homes to the pricey new homes. That could be an interesting economic dynamic to watch for in 2015.

Home ownership in the current economic climate is  heavily tilted toward the wealthy — those with good incomes or cash to buy. The metrics for housing show decreased mortgage applications, decreased existing home sales, with a high percentage of cash buyers, 4% YoY increase in sales for existing homes priced over 1 million dollars, 1% increase in new homes sales and strong demand in construction for rental housing.

Not only are there not enough first time home buyers in the market but I am seeing financial stress among move-up buyers.   This year, like I saw with first time home buyers 2 years ago,  are having to stretch above their comfort payment level. This doesn’t mean they don’t qualify for a home loan, but the total payment is more than they anticipated.   However, for 2014 move-up buyers were in the market.  It will be interesting to see what happens next year.

Organic housing sector growth in 2015, will require significant wage growth to balance the skewed MP2MI equation for both new and existing homes. Simply said, the low wage job recovery cycle has been hobbling housing and we will not see a healthy housing market until we see a higher paying jobs market. One possible bullish note for next year is that the job gains so far this year have been on average a higher than expected 230,000 per month. Interestingly, job gains really began to pick up once the federal unemployment benefits expired. More importantly, higher wage jobs are making up a bigger part of new jobs. We are now seeing approximately 58% to 42 % higher wage to lower wage new jobs. If this trend continues and if we get up to 67% higher wage jobs, we should start to see a more mortgage buyers in the housing market because these wage earners should be able to afford the total payment, especially in the more affordable areas of the country.

Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1988. Logan is also a financial contributor for Benzinga.com

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Housing Hobbled By Low Wage Recovery

Logan Mohtashami, Benzinga Contributor

At the recent Chicago Booth Conference in Los Angeles, Professor Amir Sufi and I had an opportunity to discuss his  excellent new book, House of Debt, which lead to a further discussion on why housing has been  soft for years.  Three points are worth repeating.

First, even though interest rates  have been low for a long period,  mortgage buyers financial profiles aren’t strong.   Unlike during the housing bubble and tech bubble of the last 2 cycles, our economy has not generated decent wage jobs — rather we have seen a growth in low wage service jobs. This is one of the major reason why housing has been much weaker in this cycle, even with the starkly lower rates. Without a third financial bubble to create fake demand for fake good paying jobs, our  capacity for growth in the housing market is limited.

Second, consider the effects of my proverbial “four horse men of housing– “Globalization, Technology Demographics and Debt. These four economic forces have contributed to wage deflation for middle and lower class Americans. In certain sectors, technology has  enhanced wages for those at the top while eliminating jobs at the lower end. Net asset inflation has also been a boon for capital gains income (again, preferentially helping those at the top) while low-interest rates are preventing cash savers from earning anything . While this housing cycle is strong with cash buyers, it lacks mortgage buyers. My original thesis on housing still stands;; we simply don’t have enough qualified home buyers once you x out the cash buyers.

Third, although wage inflation for most Americans has been nonexistent, housing inflation is artificially high. Consider that we have seen a 15%-45% rise in home prices in the last 2 years, concurrent with a parabolic rise in student loan debt since 2007. Wage growth on the other hand, is barely over 2%,  below rent  and housing inflation. People who complain that lending standards are holding housing back simply have forgotten math

We cannot expect new home construction to bolster the economy like it did in previous economic cycles.  Construction while growing is going to be light in the near term because we  over built during the period when we thought every American should own a home. While homes were sold to “anyone with a pulse”, many of those purchasers did not have the capacity to  carry that debt burden.  Rightly so, lending standards have gone back to normal so those unqualified buyers are not coming back. Nor should we tempt them to do so or ease standards to allow them back into the housing market. As a country we will have a good size demographic group ages 20-35  that will naturally be renters not buyers. So, the recent demand we have seen in multifamily construction from the builders is  warranted

The Chart below from Professor Anthony Sanders clearly shows a lack of income is the real problem, not tight lending standards.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2014/06/13/imf-sounds-global-housing-bubble-alarm-us-uk-australia-all-above-10-yoy-growth/

csyoyfedinc

Remember a big portion of the jobs recovered following the recession were from the low-level service jobs sector which does not generate the income needed to support  mortgage debt. We have gone from 18%  to 3.25% mortgage rates and yet we have more buyer stress at 3.25%-4.25%. Today we have a housing affordability crisis for the rental market due to a lack of wage growth and decent base salaries. So, it will be obviously much more difficult for Americans, barring the rich and very strong middle class, to own the debt of housing. The reasons have more to do with economics than the myth that lending standards are too tight.

Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1988. Logan is also a financial contributor for Benzinga.com and contributor for Businessinsider.com

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Interview With American Banker On Tight Lending Myth

Logan Mohtashami, Benzinga Contributor

Will Looser Credit Jump-Start Housing Market or Overheat It?

http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/origination/will-looser-credit-jump-start-housing-market-or-repeat-its-woes-1041814-1.html?

By Kate Berry

Regulators’ recent moves to encourage lenders to relax standards have reignited a contentious debate over whether looser credit will revitalize the housing market or set it up for another disaster.
Some experts say the changes by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the Federal Housing Administration will help the housing recovery that lost traction a year ago, when interest rates jumped and mortgage applications collapsed. Others say lending to weak borrowers will drive up home prices in the short term but lead to more foreclosures down the road.

Still others say the changes will make little difference either way.

“We simply don’t have enough qualified homebuyers even with mortgage rates getting as low as 3.25%,” says Logan Mohtashami, a senior loan officer at AMC Lending in Irvine, Calif. “We’re coming off a debt-asset bubble and deleveraging of mortgage debt is still going on. How much more risk do regulators want lenders to take?”

Lending standards are already quite liberal, Mohtashami contends. Far from restricting credit, he argues, lenders have been making loans to borrowers with low credit scores, low down-payments and high debt loads since the housing crash (through FHA, for example). In that light, the changes announced by new FHFA Director Mel Watt and FHA Commissioner Carol Galante amount to tweaks on the margins.

“It won’t do anything for demand,” Mohtashami says. “An economy with low wage jobs cannot fuel a housing market that has seen home prices rise 40%.”

Watt, in his first major announcement as head of the FHFA, the regulator and conservator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, moved to reduce the risk to lenders of having to buy back defective loans. The aim is to embolden lenders to remove so-called credit overlays—FICO score requirements of 680 or so that are used to screen out borrowers with a higher probability of default. Starting in July, the government-sponsored enterprises will allow lenders to “cure” loans that have nitpicky defects, rather than making them repurchase the assets. The FHA is advancing a similar quality assurance plan meant to ease lenders’ fears of having to indemnify the agency for losses on loans to riskier borrowers.

Those changes, combined with the recent dip in mortgage rates and easy comparisons with home sales a year ago, could spark a rebound in lending in the second half, some lenders and analysts say. A drop in rates “is a big plus, particularly in the context of the opening of the credit box,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “We’re counting on it because the housing recovery is so vital to the economy.”

Indeed, housing’s doldrums are now threatening to derail a full economic expansion, sparking ominous comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew. Single-family originations fell 27% in the fourth quarter to $293 billion, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and many lenders suffered another 30% drop or more in the first quarter.

Zandi, who is leading the charge for looser credit, has long claimed the pendulum has swung too far. Easing up on mortgage buybacks and urging lenders to eliminate credit overlays will go a long way toward a normalized market, he says.

“There are a lot of creditworthy borrowers who cannot get credit and so it’s very reasonable to ease underwriting standards, mostly by lowering FICO scores,” Zandi says. “If housing doesn’t pick up, then we’ll be stuck in a slow-growth economy.”

But with unemployment still high and wage growth persistently weak, some critics say policymakers are setting the stage for another housing recession.

Despite rising home prices, many homeowners are still living in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Six and a half million or so borrowers are underwater, owing more than the value of their mortgage, according to CoreLogic. Another 10 million have insufficient equity to sell their homes and buy another. Another 3 million homeowners are in some stage of delinquency, which is 50% higher than the current inventory of homes for sale. Cash buyers make up 30% of homebuyers, up from 10% in a normal market, and have been the major driver of home price increases.

Ed Pinto, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and longtime critic of government intervention in the housing market, called the changes the regulatory agencies announced last week “the official launch of subprime 2.0.”

Without lender overlays, the FHA’s minimum requirements of a 3.5% downpayment and 43% debt-to-income level and no set credit score are a recipe for default, he says.

“We have a curious policy of taking the most vulnerable potential homeowners with the most volatile income streams, and urging them to buy homes in the most price-volatile neighborhoods, and then wonder why they don’t gain wealth,” says Pinto.

Some housing experts argue this time around is different.

The Dodd-Frank Act and other reforms enacted in the wake of the financial crisis eliminated the egregious loan products that pushed many borrowers into foreclosure. Loans with teaser rates, balloon features, and negative amortization do not meet the “qualified mortgage” requirements of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. In addition, all lenders are required to assess a borrower’s ability to repay a loan.

“There is abundant data that shows standard loans, even to low-FICO borrowers, did extremely well through the crisis,” says Mike Calhoun, the president of the Center for Responsible Lending, an advocacy group in Durham, N.C. “Product type was the overwhelming determinant of default rates.”

Dick Bove, vice president of equity research at Rafferty Capital, sees a political impetus for the Obama administration to relax credit standards. Democrats desperately need strong GDP growth of at least 4% heading into the midterm elections if they are to have a shot at wrestling control of the House away from Republicans, he says. Meanwhile, the QM rule that went into effect in January has prevented first time homebuyers and many minorities from qualifying for home loans.

“We heard very clearly from Yellen and Lew that we need housing,” Bove says. “These guys want the House of Representatives and they’re not going to get it if the economy and housing are not strong. So they have to change the rules and come up with a mechanism for allowing low-income people to buy houses.”

Even if lenders do relax some credit requirements, it will take some time for the changes to take hold. Mortgage executives are hardly rushing to their boards of directors suggesting they lend to borrowers with weak credit or that loan repurchases are a thing of the past.

“The largest banks have felt so bruised by buybacks that a move in their direction doesn’t really take back the bitterness of their past treatment,” says Jim Vogel, head of agency debt research at FTN Financial in Memphis, Tenn.

Internal data from lenders shows overall demand is soft, Mohtashami says.

“We’re in year six [of the post-crisis era] and if you’re in the business, you knew that we never had the goods but they always blamed tight lending,” he says. “It is so frustrating.”

Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1988. Logan is also a financial contributor for Benzinga.com and contributor for Businessinsider.com

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Bloomberg Financial Interview On Health Of The Housing Market 2014


Logan Mohtashami
, Benzinga Contributor

Podcast of Interview With Kathleen Hays and Josh Rosner

http://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts/hays-advantage/

Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1988. Logan is also a financial contributor for Benzinga.com and contributor for Businessinsider.com

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Why the Financial Media and Housing Pundits Got It Wrong

Logan Mohtashami, Benzinga Contributor

 

There are 5 simple and obvious reasons  why the financial media and housing pundits got it wrong in terms of demand for home purchasing and  year over year growth in existing home sales in 2014.

  1.        Lending standards are not too strict

First, since none of these pundits have any financial lending experience they all naturally assumed that lending standards would ease making demand grow. It was painful to watch Steve Liesman  on CNBC try to make a case  to Diana Olick that if lending standards eased it would  stimulate demand. Sadly, this is a misconception held many in the financial media and Wall Street firms. Mortgage standards are not overly rigorous  in America. In fact, all you need to buy a home in America is a 620 fico score,  3.5% down payment and a debt to income ratio of not greater than 43%. Once this is recognized, the real problem, no wage growth and  the lack of good  paying jobs, will become the focus of how to grow the housing market.

Courtesy of Professor Anthony Sanders

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2014/04/30/hangover-mortgage-applications-plunge-6-purchase-applications-down-21-from-last-year/

mbap0430140

  1.       Housing internals are weak

Second, those housing pundits tend not to consider the “internals” of the  housing market. The internals tell the story for those who care to look.

In a normal cycle we would see the following:
90% mortgage buyers
40% of that first time home buyers
10% cash buyers

In this cycle, however we see the following:

67-70% mortgage buyers
27-30% first time home buyer
30% plus cash buyers for the past several  years

The internals show weakness in demand,  not strength. What if the number of cash buyers returned to a  normal 10% level of the market place?  2014 has a high percentage of cash buyers but the volume of sales are going down. With a lower percentage of cash buyers expected in the future, the number of mortgage buyers will need to increase just to maintain the current level of sales.

 

  1.       Too many low paying jobs

Also consider that this economic cycle has had a very weak income jobs recovery profile.  In layman’s terms this means  that the majority of the jobs recovered have been low wage  jobs going to people 50 and over. The Debt-to-Income (DTI)  and Liability-To-Income (LTI)  metrics for home buyers are still high even though interest rates are low because wages are low and savings have been exhausted — hence the very soft demand for mortgages. The affordability index used by most of the financial media and Wall Street firms are terribly flawed because they assume  everyone in America can make a 20% down payment. These days only the rich can come up with a 20% down-payment. In my business  I am also seeing signs of economic stress in the  would-be move up buyers.  Many homes may no longer be underwater but the amount of equity is still generally small so there are fewer dollars available for the next purchase.

From Professor Sanders
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2014/04/29/juggernaut-case-shiller-20-home-price-index-rose-12-9-yoy-in-feb-too-bad-incomes-arent-rising-that-fast/

cs042914

Home prices are too damn high!

The term “housing recovery” suggests that home prices are now “returning to normal”.  In truth however, prices are rising beyond economic reality of most Americans. While home owners and housing pundits alike were glad to see the return of  home values to nearly pre-recession levels in some areas,  nary a thought was given to how to how this would impact demand.  Prices were up 15%-45% in 2 years  — the biggest 2 year expansion we have seen outside the bubble years.   While we are seeing some price reductions, there  really isn’t any meaningful way to get a price correction in the market until inventories increase or there is another  a job loss recession. One of the best things that could happen to the housing market  would be  a major cooling of prices from the crazy pace we have been seeing in the past 2 years.  Nevertheless, I expect home prices will continue to show growth for 2014.

5. New home sales only account for 10% of the market

For years I have been saying that  housing starts and sales will rise in the new home sale sector because the 80% correction it had in this cycle. And while this is true, new homes are only 1/10th of all home sales and tend to be for the more wealthy buyer. Housing inflation for new homes sales is well over the peak of the 2006 bubble in terms of median income to median prices. Growth in that sector is being carried by the wealthy.  For the less wealthy home buyer, builders are competing  with traditional (resale) homes which often provide a much better value.  Therefore significant growth in the new home sector will be limited.

In short the housing bulls didn’t have the sophistication to know why things were soft; In a “real” housing recovery housing demand would grow by demand from main street America and mortgage buyers not from cash buyers. Even with mortgage rates below 5% since early 2011, zero interest rate policy by the Fed, and cash buyers being 30-35% of the homes bought, we are still going to finish 2014 as a negative year over year in  home sales.

 

So to all the housing bulls who still believe there is growth coming in 2014, I ask you what kind of Housing Nirvana are you smoking.  This doesn’t mean a housing collapse but also  doesn’t  mean growth in the housing sector for main street America. The only growth left this year are in new home sales and that is being held up by the wealthy buyers, not first time home buyers.  Once main street America gets paid, then you will see a real recovery in housing.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2014/04/22/existing-home-sales-fell-0-2-all-cash-buyers-33-fhfa-home-prices-rise-0-6-in-feb/

ehsmar14

Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1988. Logan is also a financial contributor for Benzinga.com and contributor for Businessinsider.com

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Miss Housing Nirvana Cries Uncle

Logan Mohtashami, Benzinga Contributor

NickTimiraos from the Wall Street Journal

https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos

Nick Timiraos ‏@NickTimiraos
Zelman existing home sales forecasts: 2014 at 4.8M (vs earlier 5.4M); 2015 at at 4.9M (vs 5.7M); 2016 at 5.0M (vs 5.9M). 2013 was 5.09M.

Nick Timiraos ‏@NickTimiraos
Ivy Zelman slashes existing home sales forecast: now -5% for 2014, vs earlier +6% forecast. New home sales forecasts unchanged.

Today “Miss Housing is in Nirvana 2013”  and “Housing Nirvana is around the corner 2014” finally threw in the towel with existing home sales, revising them not only for this year but out to 2016.  Recently, I wrote an article stating that if mortgage purchase applications don’t make an epic rise in the month of March,  then revisions lower will have to be made for total sales). http://loganmohtashami.com/2014/02/20/mortgage-purchase-applications-running-out-of-time/

Money doesn’t grow on trees and home buyers don’t have 100% stated income financing anymore. The charts below from Professor Anthony Sanders shows that we simply don’t have the year over year demand to have growth for existing home sales from mortgage buyers. Cash buyer total volume isn’t strong either. This with rates at 4.5% and inventory rising

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2014/04/09/zombieland-us-mortgage-purchase-applications-down-14-year-over-year-refi-applications-down-5-from-previous-week/

Embedded image permalink

Does this mean housing in a collapse?  No, it just means that until we get wage growth and better jobs into the economy the housing market for existing home sales will be soft.  For new home sales it’s a different market place because it doesn’t really represent main street America. So that market will have growth in sales in 2014. However, that is more a by-product of coming off an 80% correction from the peak  in  new homes sales which  are only 1/10th of sales now.   Traditionally this  would be 1/6th  of the market.

Existing home sales are more representative of main street America, not including the 35%  of the market who were cash buyers last month.  Until we see growth in American wages and overall employment, the market will remain soft. Another aspect is that the first time home buyer and move up buyer has to deal with all this housing inflation we have seen since April of 2012. When prices and rates rise together it creates a dynamic duo of pain for buyers.

As Professor Sanders shows here in this chart which goes to my very first economic thesis about housing back in 2010, “We simply don’t have enough qualified home buyers, excluding cash buyers to have a strong primary resident housing market” If the cash buyers weren’t around in this cycle the weakness would be more evident but for now they’re 1/3rd of the market place

Embedded image permalink

Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1988. Logan is also a financial contributor for Benzinga.com and contributor for Businessinsider.com

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Existing Home Sales Look Soft

Logan Mohtashami, Benzinga Contributor

Today the NAR came out with the Existing home sale numbers and the year over year action looks soft:

http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/03/february-existing-home-sales-remain-subdued

5 points on the numbers that came out today

- It’s looking more like zero growth in total sales for 2014. While new home sales still have room to edge higher, existing home sales, which are more indicative of what is happening on main street America, continue to be soft

- Inventory is higher, but housing inflation has dampened demand. As I warned back in May of 2013, housing inflation on both fronts (prices and rates) should have been the NAR major concern, not a lack of inventory

http://loganmohtashami.com/2013/05/07/housing-mammoth-stuck-in-tar-has-bigger-problems-to-worry-about/

- 35% of the market is cash buyers. This is a pathetically high when one considers that we are in year 6 post-crash and enjoying rates of 4.5% and under. Mortgage purchase applications are down 18% year over year on the 4 week moving average.

- Americans need 28-33% equity in their property in order to purchase a larger or more expensive home, if the desire is to not pay out any additional cash. This is not yet possible for millions of Americans-so the “trade up” market is also expected to be soft

- We have never had a post World War II recovery in housing where median incomes didn’t recovery.. until now.

Great chart from Professor Anthony Sander who has a great blog

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2014/03/20/existing-home-sales-fall-back-to-2012-levels-and-late-2007-levels-when-the-wheels-came-off-the-economy/

-
ehsrmincmbappa2

First time home buyers are 28% of the marketplace, down from 30% a year ago. The NAR would say that 40% is a normal level

First time home buyers are going to be light for many reasons including

- lack of jobs

- lack of income

- Student Loan debt

- Housing Inflation on both fronts prices and rates

Recently I wrote an article saying mortgage purchase applications were running out of time. The thesis was that if by the end of March we didn’t see a strong upward move in applications, we would be looking at weak sales. While last year showed strong year over year gains in this index, this year the index has been constantly down year over year .

Another great chart from Professor Sander

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2014/03/19/mortgage-muggins-mortgage-applications-drop-yet-again-1-15-purchase-applications-5-lower-than-last-year/

mbapnsa031914

New home sales will have growth this year because they are coming off such a low base from the bottom of the cycle. Existing home sales are looking like we will negative growth if there isn’t a pick up in activity in the next 5 weeks. If we do get a surge in purchase applications in April we may still salvage a flat year but if we get April fooled and see no strong action in purchase applications then it’s all downhill as seasonality starts to kick in. Not quite Housing Nirvana yet… Ivy Zelman

Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1988. Logan is also a financial contributor for Benzinga.com and contributor for Businessinsider.com

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