Orange County, CA: Housing Inventory Ghost Town

Logan Mohtashami, Benzinga Columnist

June 11, 2012 10:04 AM

Take a walk through the past, back to 2005, along the streets of Orange County, CA.   What would you see?

Smiling merchants, plenty of doors open for business, retail malls full of customers coming and going, carrying packages and doing their bit to move the bustling economy along.The city of Irvine was headquarters for many sub prime lenders and  their employees were writing a great deal of loans.   Loans for refinancing and home purchases were booming, and in the purchase market, they far outweighed the numbers of cash buyers.New homes were springing up, and construction jobs were plentiful.  Signs with smiling realtors pointed the way to model homes, resale homes and SOLD signs announced successfully completed transactions on carefully manicured lawns.Ah, wasn’t life grand!

That was then.  This is now.

That bustling, happy Orange County is not so healthy anymore.  The bitter dry wind that blew through in the form of  the 2008 financial crisis changed things.   Tremendously affected was the real estate market, and a turnaround in residential real estate is something the entire county dreams about.

When people dream, there is no lack of peddlers promising to make those fancies come true.  So dream peddlers now abound in the county,  pointing to blue skies, and rainbows to reassure the people that good times are here again.    But, pink clouds, and blue skies s don’t change mathematical facts, and the dismal facts are what led to the downturn.

The facts are that the bubble in housing, the credit boom connected to housing, the massive numbers of borrowers qualifying for home purchases were illusory and unsustainable.

Much as we might like to dream of a return to Orange County halcyon days, we live in the present and must face reality.  Back away from Orange County dreaming for a moment, and  let’s talk about that.

Things are getting better are they not?   Haven’t we heard that, here in Orange County, inventory is low and resulting in higher sales prices?   Isn’t the complaint from realtors that there are buyers, but not enough sellers?  Hasn’t this lack of inventory even resulted in multiple offers and sale prices higher than list?  And isn’t that supply and demand imbalance and reaction a sign of improving market conditions?

Actually, no, this recent drop in inventory is not a good sign.

According to Zillow’s last numbers, nearly 16 million American homeowners are underwater, which equates to 1.2 trillion dollars worth of mortgages. Being underwater will shut the door on any future plan of selling one’s house unless you want to short sale the home or just walk away from it. This isn’t a healthy reality in housing and wasn’t the case back in Orange County, 2005.    This large pool of underwater homes is another reason home sales are much lower than in 2005, in spite of the much lower interest rates of today.

Secondly, homeowners who don’t have a strong reason to sell aren’t likely to sell into a market with depressed prices.  Some want to hold off making any kind of move, until the market prices have gotten better.

This is contrary to a healthy market in which there are a number of reasons people choose to sell (as opposed to a forced short sale or foreclosure).    Reasons to sell in a healthy climate include moves for job relocations , a desire to move up into a larger home or, for those nearing retirement, into a smaller home. For now, these sellers are waiting on the sidelines.

What this has meant is lower inventory.   Laws of supply and demand still apply, so that if supply is lower than demand, prices will rise.  Since supply has dried up, even though demand is weak, supply is even weaker.  Hence, a rise in home sale prices year over year.

This recent rise in home prices has dream peddlers calling for the market turnaround and the start of a bull market in housing.

That imbalance between supply and demand would be cause for cheer in a normal market, but a normal market is not what we have.

In a healthy market,  we would not see actions being taken by the NAR and California state congressmen who are trying to block Freddie and Fannie REO bulk sales for rentals.   And whereas before, nobody was calling for this, now the cry now is to bring the foreclosure homes onto the market.

Nor  would  we see realtors knocking on doors with the suggestion to homeowners that they short sell their house, in order to take advantage of new short sale rules .   Today this is not an uncommon occurrence.   Is this effort to create inventory in such a manner a sign of a healthy market?  No, it is not.

Actions like the above, taken in order to create market inventory, outside of the normal market forces, creates a propped up housing sector that looks clumsy and inefficient.  When we abandoned all market principles in housing, this type of chaotic mad behavior is what we have to deal with.

I remember Orange County in 2005 very well and can assure you,  the housing market today bears no resemblance to the market in  2005. FHA loans weren’t popular, we didn’t have a shadow inventory, rates weren’t as low as they are today, there were no ideas for bulk sales for rentals and real estate agents weren’t asking you to short sale your home. Please  don’t be fooled into thinking that the low inventory is  a strong housing indicator.  It is a by-product of a dysfunctional housing market,  leading to multiple bids on a limited number of homes.  Organic sellers have become ghosts,  and there are yet long delays in getting distrssed homes into the market.

 Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at his family owned mortgage company AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1988. Logan is also a financial columnist for Benzinga.com and contributor for BusinessInsider.com

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(c) 2012 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

TagsCaliforniaHousing MarketOrange CountyReal Estate

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About Logan Mohtashami

My name is Logan Mohtashami. I am a senior loan manager at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. I have been an active trader in the stock market since 1996. My other passion is our political system in this country. I am also a financial contributor for Benzinga.com. My goal in this blog is to do what I can to provide readers with real time truthful information on the housing sector and finance.
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8 Responses to Orange County, CA: Housing Inventory Ghost Town

  1. Richard K says:

    Realtors are busy spinning tall tales of decling housing inventory these few weeks. Well, let them spin and let the fools pay more than necessary as this is what keeps the economy going.

    • Real Estate agents spin?? what do you mean?

      My problem with people comparing 2005 to now is that we have a complete different stage of facts with the housing market now and compared to back then. One of big themes in my articles have been the manipulation of inventory. Now, it’s taken another stage where there are just a lot people underwater and can’t sell. You have unintended consequences when you don’t have a free market and this is a by-product of one of them.

  2. Mike says:

    Logan,

    I have followed your posts for some time. Here in Northern Colorado, we are seeing a surge in builders sales (mostly large nationals) and of course that has the Real Estate Agents out in the streets with their bullhorns blabbing about low inventories, high demand etc.
    But a look behind the curtain reveals truths. Banks have finally taken the write-downs on developed lots….to the tune of an average of 50%. The large National builders have had to write down their lot inventories to these levels to compete. Subcontractors, hungry for work from 2008-2011 are willing to work for peanuts…just for cash flow. Basically, the builders are building themselves out of distressed lot inventory. We’ll see how they do if they have to charge REAL lot prices in. Most of the builders I talk to are working on the slimmest of margins, again, just to get some cash flow. Organic used home sales are few and far between (at non-distressed pricing). All this in an area that didn’t fall 20% in the bubble (because we never went up more than 20% in a year).
    I was lucky, I built and developed from 1994 to 2008. Had the bank nut paid down when things went south. Friends (and enemies) keep asking me when I’m going to jump back in. They don’t seem to understand when I answer “when the risk/reward makes sense again”.

    Like you, not all people in our business are parrots that just keep repeating the company line,
    “If I keep saying it’s good, it’s good. Right?”

    Mike

    • :-) company line true. That Nadi055 I believe is just having fun because no one can be that blind for 4 years now.

      The sad part is when a housing recovery happens, it will be so easy to spot. You wouldn’t have all these other circumstances to argument about. So much of it has to do with national economics as well, that is why a lot housing bulls have been wrong since 2007. The 10 year note at 1.60 isn’t a good sign that the economy is getting better.

      • Mike says:

        Not to mention trillions of dollars in stimulus. It’s this bad economically AFTER we have thrown everything (including the kitchen sink) at the economy.
        I’ve said before, and I’ll say it again. Twenty years from 2007 for full housing recovery.

        IF EVER.

      • Yes, in terms of the economy you can see my longer term concern there. We have low taxes, low interest rates, trillions spent and even with all that.. Sub 2% growth and anemic job growth. When rates and inflation rise we better get jobs with higher pay to offset that.

  3. terrence Moore says:

    Logan…can you do some analysis on the Long Island real estate market? Prices are still through the roof and havent come down in decent areas? What is going on?

    • I would have to do some research on the inventory levels there.

      As long as inventory is kept low and forecloses with short sales slowly drip into the market, prices will rise because even with this tepid demand it outstrips the supply of homes. Also, there are still too many home owners underwater to sell which also kills the supply.

      Mortgage purchase applications have gone no where since 2010, actually been weak in 2012. People think that is due to tight lending standards. However, it’s more related that many Americans don’t have the income or asset to buy homes. If it wasn’t for the 30% cash buyers which is roughly 20-23 % above normal levels then the existing home sales would be much weaker. New home sales which are only 1/12th of the housing market has the advantage here because they have less homes to compete with.

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