Longest Job Expansion Continues: 101 Months

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Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported jobs data for  February, 2019. Payroll jobs grew at 20,000  which means that the longest job expansion streak continues, now for 101 months. The job numbers  was a big miss from expectations, however, revisions were positive. The last 12 months comprised one the best job creation years we have had in recent history–especially when one takes into account the duration of this economic expansion and our demographics. We are now 4 months away from having the longest economic expansion ever recorded in U.S. history.

For 2019 I predicted this:


“I expect job creation numbers to fall but stay in the range of 137,000 – 157,000 per month.”

https://loganmohtashami.com/2018/12/29/2019-economic-housing-predictions/

Even with this miss on the headline report, we are averaging 186,000 jobs on a 3 month average which is still 32,000 higher than my high end estimates for 2019.  We are still producing double the jobs needed for population growth without any real inflationary price pressures.

From BLS:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

‘Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in February (+20,000), and the unemployment rate declined to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in professional and business services, health care, and wholesale trade continued to trend up, while construction employment decreased.
 “

This a breakdown of the jobs created for the last month.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm

JOBS March

This is a look at the earnings breakdown for the previous month.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-and-average-weekly-earnings-by-industry-bubble.htm

chart (2)

Wage growth is running at 3.4% on a 12-month average. The 3-month average running at 3.4%. This means we have solid real wage growth since headline CPI inflation has been falling from the recent highs. Lower oil prices will boost the real average hourly wage data.

 Atlanta Fed:
https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/labor-report-first-look/?panel=1&s=tw

atlanta-fed_labor-report-snapshot_average-hourly-earnings

From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/02/13/consumer-price-index-january-headline-at-1-55

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Job growth continues to outperform my expectations. We are producing over double the number of jobs needed for population growth. This is a solid reflection of our American work ethic, especially considering the duration of this economic cycle.

Today, the U6 Unemployment Rate is still below the pre-recessions lows.

From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/03/08/february-jobs-report-20k-new-jobs-major-disappointment

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Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group,  which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data  daily on his own facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami