Longest Job Expansion Continues: 102 Months

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Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported jobs data for March 2019. Payroll jobs grew at 196,000  which means that the longest job expansion streak continues, now for 102 months. The job numbers was a slight beat from expectations, and revisions were positive. The last 12 months comprised one the best job market years we have had in recent history–especially when one takes into account the duration of this economic expansion, job openings and our demographics. We are now 3 months away from having the longest economic expansion ever recorded in U.S. history.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 196,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services. ” 

For 2019 I predicted this:

“I expect job creation numbers to fall but stay in the range of 137,000 – 157,000 per month.”

https://loganmohtashami.com/2018/12/29/2019-economic-housing-predictions/

Even with this beat on the headline report, we are averaging 180,000 jobs on a 3 month average which is still 23,000 higher than my high-end estimates for 2019.  We are still producing double the jobs needed for population growth without any real inflationary price pressures.

This a breakdown of the jobs created for the last month.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm

April Jobs breakdown

This is a look at the earnings breakdown for the previous month.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-and-average-weekly-earnings-by-industry-bubble.htm

April wage breakdown

Wage growth is running at 3.2% on a 12-month average. The 3-month average running at 2.5%. This means we have solid real wage growth since headline CPI inflation has been falling from the recent highs. Lower oil prices will boost the real average hourly wage data.

 Atlanta Fed:
https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/labor-report-first-look/?panel=1&s=tw

April atlanta-fed_labor-report-snapshot_average-hourly-earnings

From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/03/12/consumer-price-index-february-headline-at-1-52
March CPI short

Job growth continues to outperform my expectations. We are producing over double the number of jobs needed for population growth. This is a solid reflection of our American work ethic, especially considering the duration of this economic cycle.

Today, the U6 Unemployment Rate is still below the pre-recessions lows.

From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/04/05/march-jobs-report-196k-new-jobs-beats-forecast

April U6 7.3%

Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group,  which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data  daily on his own facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami