The Sad Life Of An American Economic Bear

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The best part of this record-breaking economic expansion is watching the twitter fights over full employment. Talk about first world problems, yes this is what it has come down to; To be fair, I have consistently said that full employment in this expansion will look like this. We would be printing under 120K jobs per month with job openings rising toward 8-10 million. So, in that context, we have legs to run the economy hotter.
We always have these American bears talking about crashes and 102 million people out of the workforce which is borderline sociopathic. However, watching twitter fights over what full employment looks like should be a reminder to everyone on twitter finance and America how wrong the American bears have been in this cycle.

So, let’s do a quick recap before we go over the jobs data:

1. Longest Job expansion ever recorded in U.S. history with 103 months of job gains and counting. The previous record was 48 months.

2. Soon to be the longest economic expansion ever recorded in U.S. history come July 2019.

3. The highest job openings print ever recorded in a cycle of over 7.6 million.

4. The lowest unemployment claims vs. civilian labor force ever recorded in U.S. history.

Recessions come and go but the last 10 years showed us that these ideological groups who spread false economic theories to create oxygen for themselves indeed have failed their followers. When the next recession comes, they will be at it again and again, and this will never change. It’s a depression that will plague them all even in the afterlife.

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Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported job data for April 2019. Payroll jobs grew at 263,000 which means that the longest job expansion streak continues, now for 103 months. The job numbers were a beat from expectations, and complete revisions were positive. The last 12 months comprised one of the best job market years we have had in recent history–especially when one takes into account the duration of this economic expansion, job openings, and our demographics. We are now 2 months away from having the longest economic expansion ever recorded in U.S. history.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in April, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, construction, health care, and social assistance.”

For 2019 I predicted this:

“I expect job creation numbers to fall but stay in the range of 137,000 – 157,000 per month.”

https://loganmohtashami.com/2018/12/29/2019-economic-housing-predictions/

3-month average running at 169,000 per month, so we are still outperforming my estimates for 2019.  We are still producing double the jobs needed for population growth without any real inflationary price pressures.

This a breakdown of the jobs created for the last month.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm
May Jobs

This is a look at the earnings breakdown for the previous month. In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents to
$27.77.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-and-average-weekly-earnings-by-industry-bubble.htm

May avg hourly 27.53

Wage growth is running at 3.2% on a 12-month average. The 3-month average running at 3.1%. This means we have substantial real wage growth since headline CPI inflation has been falling from the recent highs. Lower oil prices will boost the real average hourly wage data. Since oil prices have risen from their recent lows, this will impact real wage growth in the future.

Atlanta Fed:
https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/labor-report-first-look/?panel=1&s=tw

May Wage growth

From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/04/10/consumer-price-index-march-headline-at-1-86
April CPI short

Job growth continues to outperform my expectations. We are producing over double the number of jobs needed for population growth. This is an honest reflection of our American work ethic, especially considering the duration of this economic cycle.

Today, the U6 Unemployment Rate is still below the pre-recession lows.

From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/05/03/april-jobs-report-263k-new-jobs-beats-forecast

May U6

Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group,  which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data  daily on his own facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami