American Bears: Apologies Now

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For 2019 I predicted this:

“I expect job creation numbers to fall but stay in the range of 137,000 – 157,000 per month.”

https://loganmohtashami.com/2018/12/29/2019-economic-housing-predictions/ 

I have always had a lower job growth forecast than most people after 2014. So the falling job data to me isn’t a surprise. What happened in 2018 still to me to a degree only was abnormal, and I expect the job data for 2018 to be revised just a tad lower. However, year to date we are still beating my estimates for the year at 167,000.

From the BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 128,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, social assistance, and financial activities. Within manufacturing,
employment in motor vehicles and parts decreased due to strike activity. Federal government employment was down, reflecting a drop in the number of temporary jobs for the 2020 Census.”

Instead of writing about the jobs report, I wanted to take a look back at the recent jobs data.

Recently I wrote articles about how to really look at job data to get a good gauge of the market place because I genuinely believed that people were going to overreact to the lower job growth in 2019

Inversion Job Bears Becareful 

https://loganmohtashami.com/2019/09/06/inversion-recession-job-bears-becareful/

Everybody: Job Openings Are Still Very Healthy 

https://loganmohtashami.com/2019/10/09/everybody-job-openings-are-still-very-healthy-relax/

I understand the dynamics of yellow journalism, extreme ideological right, and left-wing takes, and political economy theory. I understand the appeal of sleeping next to the warm belly of the American Crash Dragon and how you would feel cozy in that spot.

At some point, look at yourself in the mirror and ask is that how you want to be remembered, especially when you pass off to the afterlife. Take a good look into the mirror and ask yourself is this who you really are. Someone who always looks at the world with a dark lens.

If you say, yes. I get it, the world has the opposite side as a form of balance. If you accept this about yourself, then at least you own this country an apology for having poor economic models. Recessions come and go, but we, Americans, we still get up every morning and fight on. This has always been the strength of our American work ethic. Not understanding the American work ethic has been the biggest failure of the extreme left and right.

Some point in the future, even myself will usher the R-word, just not yet. How you act right before the recession, while the recession is happening and then the recovery will say a lot about you as a person going out for decades to come.

Recession Model Update Here:

https://loganmohtashami.com/2019/10/15/recession-flag-watch-update/

You lost today, you have been suffering since March of 2009, in reality, have been suffering since 1790. However, this doesn’t mean you have to like it, but maybe, just maybe you need to update your economic models. I stress and mean this, we need better American bears that what we have today.

Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group,  which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data  daily on his own facebookpage https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami