AB Data: 2,500,000 Jobs Created

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Yes, you’re reading that correct, 2,500,000 jobs created. Today’s job data, just like the recent ADP report that came out Wednesday, has shocked the world.

From Doug Short: 
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/06/03/first-look-at-may-adp-says-2-76m-nonfarm-private-jobs-lost

ADP

From the BLS:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined to 13.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In May, employment rose sharply in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. By contrast, employment in government continued to decline sharply”

Here is a breakdown of the jobs created in this report, and as we would expect in any positive jobs report, leisure and hospitality led the way.

From BLS:  https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm

June Jobs per industry

I actually don’t want to focus on the jobs report too much today. We have a lot of work to do as a country to get back to BC (Before Coronavirus)  data. However, we had some clues that things were going to get better recently. When I say better, it’s working from the lowest bar ever recorded in history. Some of these hires can be attributed to the PPP dollars given to companies to hire back people.

On April 7th for Housing Wire, I created an AB (America is Back) model with this theme.

“I believe the months of April and May are going to tell an epic story of America’s start in defeating this virus.  If we do this right and document the cause and effect of our efforts, future generations will be able to look to this period in time for how to handle a global pandemic. My faith in America winning has never let me down because I always believe in my people and country. I can tell you now, this virus isn’t changing my view on that.”

 

Find the economic model here.

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/is-the-housing-market-already-rebounding-from-covid-19/


On April 10th.   I was trying to show a model on how silly it was to be calling for the epic bubble home price crash in 2020. By the way, purchase application data just had it’s the highest year over year growth print of 2020 this week at 18% year over year.

From MBA: https://www.mba.org/

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https://loganmohtashami.com/2020/04/10/ad-data-what-will-it-take-to-crush-home-prices/

“These are dark times. But even in dark times, we are preternaturally prepared to see the end of the tunnel. We learned in the human physiology class that the photoreceptors of the human eye can detect a single photon of light. While it may not be until nine or more photos hit the retina that we perceived light, we detect before we can perceive. Likewise, if we are diligent, we will be able to identify the return of hope and light coming back into the American economy before it is perceived by all those poor masked souls around us.”

I needed to see 5 things to happen so I can move to the AB stage. Some of those things were happening before this job report. One of those things that don’t get a lot of attention is the St. Louis Financial Stress Index did have an inverse V Shape recovery to below zero at -0.1172% before this job report happened.  Zero = Normal and anything below 1.21% is preferred. However, the goal is to get below zero and stay there for as long as possible.

64 Stress Index
64 Stress Index MAX
ST Louis Breakdown 2 model

I always stress that we have a lot of work to do to get back to the January/February 2020 economic data, which was good. We still have a lot of high-risk variables out there that can reverse the progress we have made.  We should not let up on the fiscal and monetary stimulus that got us here!  However, the big picture!  I have faith that we will defeat this, and we will continue the historical theme that All American Bears since 1790 have failed. It will follow all of them to the afterlife.

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Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data daily on his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami and is a contributor for HousingWire.