Diana Olick: This is astounding proof of the disconnect between home builder sentiment and reality. Thanks to Logan Mohtashami for sending.
So what was this point?
The chart shows the home builders’ confidence index has gone parabolic from single family starts. New home sales have recently taken a hit and the home builders themselves blame higher mortgage rates. However, the point I have always tried to make is that the home builders know in the back of their mind that there are millions of homes that will come to the market in the next few years. So, even though home prices and sales have been rising, total housing starts are nowhere near the 50 year average of total starts which is roughly 1.5 million. We are roughly at 900K so far for total starts. We still have the housing bubble hangover and this is why residential construction hasn’t been booming. There is supply out there that is just not ready to come back to market yet.
The chart comes from Bill Mcbride http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
As you can see there is a big disconnect between confidence and economic reality. While you’re at it, take a look at the duration of the chart as well.