U.S. Job Market Still Moving Forward

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report released today showed that 156,000 jobs were created in September with average hourly wage growth running at a cycle high of  2.6% . The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%.http://go.usa.gov/vrK  #JobsReport #BLSdata

More charts and analysis on the September nonfarm payroll employment numbers  can be found here:  http://go.usa.gov/4UqY  #JobsReport #BLSdata
I reduced my 2016 job creation numbers to 190K per month to better reflect our prime age labor force growth in this cycle.  Because we are later in the this economic cycle we should expect slowing in the  total number of  jobs being created.   We have been experiencing this slowing in 2016 and this will likely continue in 2017.

From Calculated Risk:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/september-employment-report-156000-jobs.html
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Even with a recession in manufacturing and general economic  slowdowns in China, Europe and Japan, unemployment claims in the US  just hit a low, on a 4 week moving average, last seen in 1973.

From Calculated Risk:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html
weeklyclaimsoct62016-1
This has been the longest job month expansion cycle, ever.

72… As in 72 consecutive months of job growth, by far the longest streak in history.


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And the last Job Openings print was the highest recorded in U.S. history at 5,900,000. 

From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2016/09/07/job-openings-labor-turnover-clues-to-the-business-cycle

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Not surprising, there is a strong correlation between education level and employment in the U.S. If we want to seriously address filling in the job openings in this country we will need to do a better job at helping people who never went to college, especially high school drop outs, obtain the skills they need to find sustainable employment.

From the Wall Street Journal:
https://t.co/hRQdSoCcSL

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Even though 2016 started with worst stock market  performance ever, we have not seen “The Great American Crash as many bears predicted and seemed to hope for.   Instead none of the economic data  was recessionary.
Now it’s time to start focusing on 2017 If we can get to 2018 without a  recession, this will be the longest economic expansion on record. 

From Doug Short: 
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2016/10/07/september-jobs-report-new-jobs-below-forecast-ur-ticks-up-to-5-0
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I will be speaking at  2016 Americatalyst: Fast Forward,October 30 – November 1st  in Austin, Texas.
My panel will be called WITHERING HEIGHTS: House and Rent Price Projections and will include these speakers.


HOSTED BY

TONI MOSS, CEO, AMERICATALYST LLC and EUROCATALYST BV

TIM SKEET, Senior Advisor, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS ASSOCIATION | ICMA

FEATURING

DOUG BENDT, SVP of Research and Product Development, RENTRANGE

MARK FLEMING, SVP and Chief Economist, FIRST AMERICAN FINANCIAL CORPORATION

LOGAN MOHTASHAMI, Senior Loan Manager, AMC LENDING GROUP

ALLAN WEISS, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, WEISS RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

http://www.americatalyst.com/content/2016-americatalyst-fast-forward

(Maybe) a chance to debate David Stockman about U.S. economcis and the role of the Federal Reserve at this event.

Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group,  which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data  daily on his own facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami