U.S. Job Market Still Moving Forward

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report released today showed that 156,000 jobs were created in September with average hourly wage growth running at a cycle high of  2.6% . The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%.http://go.usa.gov/vrK  #JobsReport #BLSdata

More charts and analysis on the September nonfarm payroll employment numbers  can be found here:  http://go.usa.gov/4UqY  #JobsReport #BLSdata
I reduced my 2016 job creation numbers to 190K per month to better reflect our prime age labor force growth in this cycle.  Because we are later in the this economic cycle we should expect slowing in the  total number of  jobs being created.   We have been experiencing this slowing in 2016 and this will likely continue in 2017.

From Calculated Risk:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/september-employment-report-156000-jobs.html

Even with a recession in manufacturing and general economic  slow–downs in China, Europe and Japan, unemployment claims in the US  just hit a low, on a 4 week moving average, last seen in 1973.

From Calculated Risk:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html

This has been the longest job month expansion cycle, ever.

And the last Job Openings print was the highest recorded in U.S. history at 5,900,000. 

From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2016/09/07/job-openings-labor-turnover-clues-to-the-business-cycle

Not surprising, there is a strong correlation between education level and employment in the U.S. If we want to seriously address filling in the job openings in this country we will need to do a better job at helping people who never went to college, especially high school drop outs, obtain the skills they need to find sustainable employment.

From the Wall Street Journal:
https://t.co/hRQdSoCcSL

Even though 2016 started with worst stock market  performance ever, we have not seen “The Great American Crash”  as many bears predicted and seemed to hope for.   Instead none of the economic data  was recessionary.
Now it’s time to start focusing on 2017.   If we can get to 2018 without a  recession, this will be the longest economic expansion on record. 

From Doug Short: 
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2016/10/07/september-jobs-report-new-jobs-below-forecast-ur-ticks-up-to-5-0