Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported employment gains of 161,000 in October and anunemployment rate of 4.9%
Today’s report maintained the streak of job gains – as we are now going into the 73rd month of gains — the longest streak in U.S. history.
73… As in 73 consecutive months of job growth, by far the longest streak in history.
From Calculated Risk:
Average hourly earnings rose 2.8% , year over year, in October, but non manager growth was at 2.4% .
However, the trend is your friend. We are seeing wages picking up . Look for the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker to hit 4% in 2017. According to that tracker, job switchers recently hit a cycle high of 4.3%.
Pickup in wage growth is strong evidence the US job market is closing in on full employment
Our massive young demographic group of ages 21-26 is kicking into the workforce and we are starting to see that effect on the employment numbers.
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Employment/population ratio for prime working age at 78.2%, a post-recession high. That’s good news #1.
Finally, the famous U-6 unemployment rate that every last America bear hangs his hat on, is showing cycle lows.
U.S. Unemployment Rate by Type
Overall, we are seeing late cycle dynamics in job numbers. Wage growth in picking up, unemployment claims are low and trending low for some time, and job openings have been high. I am already lowing my expectations for job creation number for 2017, adjusting to demographics.
Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data daily on his own facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami