Job Report Shows Some Wage Growth Punch

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Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported employment gains of  161,000 in October and anunemployment rate of 4.9%

2h2 hours ago

Payroll employment rises by 161,000 in October; unemployment rate changes little (4.9%)

Today’s report maintained the streak of job gains – as we are now going into the 73rd month of gains — the longest streak  in U.S. history. 

73… As in 73 consecutive months of job growth, by far the longest streak in history.

73

From Calculated Risk:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/11/october-employment-report-161000-jobs.html

payrolloct2016

 Average hourly earnings rose 2.8% , year over year, in October, but non manager growth was at 2.4% .

However,  the trend is your friend. We are seeing wages picking up . Look for the  Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker to hit 4% in 2017. According to that tracker, job switchers recently hit a cycle high of  4.3%. 

Pickup in wage growth is strong evidence the US job market is closing in on full employment

wage-growth


Our massive young demographic group
of ages 21-26 is kicking into the workforce and we are starting to see that effect on the employment numbers.

A must follow on twitter
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Employment/population ratio for prime working age at 78.2%, a post-recession high. That’s good news #1.

jed


Finally, the famous U-6
unemployment rate that every last America bear hangs his hat on, is showing cycle lows. 

U6

u6

U.S. Unemployment Rate by Type

u6-2

Overall, we are seeing late cycle dynamics in job numbers. Wage growth in picking up, unemployment claims are low and trending low for some time, and job openings have been high. I am already lowing my expectations for job creation number for 2017, adjusting to demographics. 

Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group,  which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data  daily on his own facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami