Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported jobs data for March 2018. Payroll jobs grew to 103,000 which means that the longest job expansion streak continues, now for 90 months. This job numbers was a miss from expectations and we had negative total revisions of 50K to the previous’ s months data, but average hourly earnings did rise to 2.7% .
Even with this miss on the headline job number, 2018 is still looking a lot stronger than I expected.
“For 2018 I am predicting monthly job creation numbers in the 157,000 – 129,000 range, which is still well above population growth, but lower than last year. With over 6,000,000 job openings in play that number should be attainable.”
https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/12/31/2018-economic-housing-predictions/
Below is what I passed a long to my facebook followers talking about what to expect on Job’s Friday.
What I expected to happen did occur with a miss on the headline report and negative revisions coming in total counting the past 2 months combined. Even with this miss on the headline job number 2018 is still looking a lot stronger than I was looking for with monthly job expansion numbers
“For 2018 I am predicting monthly job creation numbers in the 157,000 – 129,000 range, which is still well above population growth, but lower than last year. With over 6,000,000 job openings in play that number should be attainable.”
https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/12/31/2018-economic-housing-predictions/
Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported jobs data for March 2018. Payroll jobs grew to 103,000 which means that the longest job expansion streak continues, now for 90 months. This job numbers was a miss from expectations and we had negative total revisions of 50K to the previous’ s months data, but average hourly earnings did rise to 2.7% .
BLS: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
This a breakdown of the jobs created for this last month.
From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm
This is a look at the wage breakdown for previous month.
Wages, in general, are growing but we don’t have any break away wage inflation yet!
From the Atlanta Fed: https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/labor-report-first-look.aspx?panel=1
All in all, job growth is outperforming expectations. When one considers the duration of this economic cycle and the growth in jobs vs population growth, the current job expansion is especially impressive. The reality is that we have over 155,000,000 Americans working, we have the longest job expansion ever on record, we have low unemployment claims and we just had 6,300,000 job openings. The only concern I have is that if job openings head toward 7-8 million, job growth slows noticeably. We aren’t there yet but that is something watch over the next 2 years. First world problems!
From Doug Short: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/04/06/march-jobs-report-103k-new-jobs-disappoints-forecast
Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data daily on his own facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami
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