Longest Job Expansion Continues: 91 Months


Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported jobs data for April 2018. Payroll jobs grew to 164,000 which means that the longest job expansion streak continues, now for 91 months.  The job number was a miss from expectations but we had positive revisions in the previous reports.

Even with this miss on the headline jobs number, 2018 is still looking a lot stronger than I expected.

Previously I wrote

“For 2018 I am predicting monthly job creation numbers in the 157,000 – 129,000 range, which is still well above population growth, but lower than last year. With over 6,000,000 job openings in play that number should be attainable.” 


So far we are averaging 199,750 per month.   At this stage of the economic cycle, this is a solid number, no matter what Rick Santelli believes.

“Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, health care, and mining.”

 From the BLS:

This a breakdown of the jobs created for this last month.

From the BLS:

May Jobs

This is a look at the wage breakdown for previous month.

From the BLS:

chart (64)

Wages, in general, are growing but we don’t have any break-away wage inflation yet! However, the most recent Employment Cost Index did hit a cycle high recently from non union workers.

From the BLS:

ECI Union vs Private

Also note, wage growth has been higher than core CPI and PCE inflation for some time, especially for prime age workers.

From the Atlanta Fed:

Job growth continues outperform  my expectations.   The fact that we are producing double the amount of jobs needed for population growth is a solid reflection of our American work ethic, especially considering the duration of this economic cycle,  We have over 155,000,000 Americans working, the longest job expansion ever on record, low unemployment claims and we still have a massive number of job openings. Today, the U6 Unemployment Rate broke below pre recessions lows.

From Doug Short:


Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing marketLogan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group,  which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data  daily on his own facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami