Longest Job Expansion Continues: 93 Months

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Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported jobs data for June 2018. Payroll jobs grew to 213,000 which means that the longest job expansion streak continues, now for 93 months.  The job numbers beat expectations and there were positive revisions of 37,000 jobs  from the previous reports.  Job creation in 2018 has beaten my expectations with frankly spectacular job creation numbers each month. We are now one year away from  having the longest economic expansion ever recorded in U.S. history.

2018 so far has beaten my expectations so far and this has been a spectacular job  creation year so far considering where our labor force growth is at the fact that we are now 1 year away from having the longest economic expansion ever recorded in U.S. history.

In 2017 I wrote:


“For 2018 I am predicting monthly job creation numbers in the 157,000 – 129,000 range, which is still well above population growth, but lower than last year. With over 6,000,000 job openings in play that number should be attainable.” 

https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/12/31/2018-economic-housing-predictions/

So far this year we are creating 214,500 jobs per month.  This rate will be hard to sustain so when it falls, don’t be surprised or alarmed.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

“Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 213,000 in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care, while retail trade lost jobs”

36666161_10155814214623250_3603012652609044480_nThis a breakdown of the jobs created for the last month.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm

JULY JOB BREAKDOWN

This is a look at the earnings breakdown for previous month.

BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-and-average-hourly-earnings-by-industry-bubble.htm

JULY Wage Breakdown
Wage growth was running at 2.7% on a 3 month and 12 month basis, against headline CPI inflation growth. This means real wage growth is now negative due to the rise in oil prices. It is still higher than core CPI.

Atlanta Fed: 
https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/labor-report-first-look.aspx?panel=1

Atlanta wage growth

From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/06/12/consumer-price-index-may-headline-at-2-80

JUNE CPI SHORT

Job growth continues to outperform  my expectations.   We are producing nearly triple the amount of jobs needed for population growth.  This is a solid reflection of our American work ethic, especially considering the duration of this economic cycle,   Today, the U6 Unemployment Rate is still below the pre-recessions lows.

From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/07/06/june-jobs-report-213k-new-jobs-unemployment-rate-at-4-0

JUly U6

Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group,  which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data  daily on his own facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami