Longest Job Expansion Continues: 94 months

32313198_1541401225969352_8956071508782874624_n-e1531936867269

Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported jobs data for July 2018. Payroll jobs grew at 157,000 which means that the longest job expansion streak continues, now for 94 months.  The job numbers missed expectations but we saw large positive revisions to the reports for the previous two months, bringing those months to 268,000 and 248,000.  Job creation in 2018 has beaten my expectations by a lot.  This has been one the best jobs year we have had in recent history, especially when one takes into account the duration of this economic expansion and our demographics.  We are now one year away from  having the longest economic expansion ever recorded in U.S. history.

At the beginning of the year, I anticipated we would create at best 157,000 jobs per month. Year to date we are pushing an average of 215,000 jobs per month.  I don’t believe this rate of job creation can last but for now let’s enjoy how well the U.S. job market is doing in 2018.

In 2017 I wrote:


“For 2018 I am predicting monthly job creation numbers in the 157,000 – 129,000 range, which is still well above population growth, but lower than last year. With over 6,000,000 job openings in play that number should be attainable.” 

https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/12/31/2018-economic-housing-predictions/  

From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 157,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, in manufacturing, and in health care and social assistance.

DjrOQE_U0AAEVIY

This a breakdown of the jobs created for the last month.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm

AUGUST Jobs Breakdown

This is a look at the earnings breakdown for previous month.

From BLS: 
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-and-average-hourly-earnings-by-industry-bubble.htm

August Wage Breakdown

Wage growth is running at 2.9% on a 3-month average and 2.7% on a 12-month basis. This means that real wage growth is now negative when accounting for headline CPI inflation, wage growth is still higher than core CPI, however.

From Atlanta Fed: 
https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/labor-report-first-look.aspx?panel=1

Atlanta Fed

From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/07/12/consumer-price-index-june-headline-at-2-87
JULY CPI SHORT

Job growth continues to outperform my expectations. We are producing over double the number of jobs needed for population growth.  This is a solid reflection of our American work ethic, especially considering the duration of this economic cycle,  

Today, the U6 Unemployment Rate is still below the pre-recessions lows.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/08/03/june-jobs-report-157k-new-jobs-unemployment-rate-at-3-9-worse-than-forecast

879cbc9145cad3c4827fb684d1c3ac47

Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group,  which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data  daily on his own facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami