First and foremost, I want to say I am a big fan of what the federal reserve has accomplished in this cycle. They have done a great job with their dual mandate as we have had the longest job expansion ever on record, 97 months and counting. The rate of growth on inflation for both PCE and CPI has been mild. Next year will have the longest economic expansion on record. The question now is where the federal reserve neutral rate is?
In 2015 I wrote:
FED And The First Rate Hike
https://loganmohtashami.com/2015/08/16/fed-and-the-first-rate-hike/
In 2016 I wrote:
Fed Rate Hikes Need More Inflation
https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/04/15/fed-rate-hikes-need-more-inflation/
In 2017 I wrote:
Fed Still Needs More Inflation
https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/02/07/fed-still-needs-more-inflation/
What is a proper neutral federal reserve fed funds rate in this modern-day age of demographic deflationary factors and internet sales keeping PCE low?
I am just going to leave my model for a federal reserve neutral rate as I am no one, but I am willing to put a model up for the sake of a conversation.
It would be a 10 year moving average of PCE rate of growth + 0.25%, and then we take it from there to see if real inflation can grow.
From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/11/29/pce-price-index-october-headline-core
From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/11/29/two-measures-of-inflation-and-fed-policy
Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data daily on his own facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami
