I recently gave two interviews talking about the housing market, mortgage rates, and the state of the economy.
In this podcast, I stressed how important it is to have economic models for recession calls.
One final note today as well.
Both ISM and Markit PMI data are now above 50 together. American bears who stressed so much last year that a negative ISM print at this stage of the cycle means a recession is going to have a more laborious task now for their 2020 recession call.
Historically speaking, it’s hard to have a Calender year recession when housing starts hit cycle highs in that year. Now, it’s even harder when manufacturing data; both are now positive together. Now, we don’t have any big growth stories in both manufacturing data. The last GDP print of 2.1% did have a poor composite factor to it. However, none of this is recessionary just yet. Be patient, my bearish American friends, in time, your salvation will happen, just not yet.
From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/02/04/markit-manufacturing-manufacturing-growth-slows-at-start-of-2020-as-exports-fall
Recently on HousingWire, I listed 7 different reasons why mortgage rates could get to cycle lows. However, you won’t hear the word recession from me until my 6 flags are up.
From Boeing to Brexit: 7 Major Storylines That Could Send Mortgage Rates Even Lower
From Boeing to Brexit: 7 major storylines that could send mortgage rates even lower
Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data daily on his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami and is a contributor for HousingWire.