Retail sales came out today, and we can clearly see the effect of the Covid19 on the data line. Like most economic data, we are witnessing waterfall-like charts being created. The previous month’s report, as you can see, was still showing year over year growth and then stay at home economy came into play.
From Doug Short: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/04/15/retail-sales-down-8-7-in-march
From Census: https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
“Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation
and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $483.1 billion, a decrease of 8.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and 6.2 percent (±0.7 percent) below March 2019. Total sales for the January 2020 through March 2020 period were up 1.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2020 to February 2020 percent change was revised from down 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to down 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent)”
Purchase application data came out, and we can clearly see the A.D.( After the Disease) impact in this data line as well.
2020 Purchase Application Heat Months Tracker Today, down -35% year over year. I still believe we have a bit more downside left on a YoY % before lockdown protocols are removed. Then we can work from a low base.
BC data +8 +17 +11 +16 +10 +10 +10 +12 +11
AD data -11 -24 -33-35
From Calculated Risk:
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/04/mba-mortgage-applications-increased.html
More on the housing topic here with my recent article on HousingWire. We have to be mindful that the next existing home sales report won’t show the full negative impact of Covid19 as purchase application data was still showing year over year growth up until March 18th.
Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data daily on his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami and is a contributor for HousingWire.