Purchase Application Data: Don’t Call It A Comeback

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Don’t Call It A Comeback!

Excellent demographics and low mortgage rates have been here for years, adding some color to the Silver Tsunami and putting the bubble boys in fear!

If you have some silver in your hair, you might understand that reference. Speaking of home price crashes, I took a stab at the infamous Silver Tsunami on HousingWire this week.

Is there evidence of a Silver Tsunami home price crash?

Purchase application data has finally regained its 4-week moving average mojo after the Covid19 collapse. The biggest key to remember here is that seasonality has kicked in with this data line. This means total volumes will fall into the start of the next year. Remember not to overhype the data, we just regained back the trend that we lost due to lockdown protocols. What we should be rooting for is a noticeable cooling off of the median sales price growth we started the year off with the NAR’s existing-home sales report.

AD (After the Disease) data
-11%
-24%
-35%
-31%
-20%
-19%
-10%
-1.5%
+9%
+18%
+13%

From Calculated Risk:
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/06/mba-mortgage-applications-increase-in.html
MBAJune102020

Now that chart looks like a legit V shape recovery. This rebound in demand won’t show up in the May’s existing-home sales report coming out later this month. However, June’s report will give us an excellent base to work from for the rest of the year. We can have higher existing home sales in fall and winter, that would be the norm the previous expansion.

From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/05/21/existing-home-sales-drop-in-april
May Existing Home Sales Report

We have a long way to go to get the economy back to the BC (Before Coronavirus) data. With the recent significant uptick in cases in states like Arizona and Texas, please remember that we do have a very violent virus out there, killing Americans every day. The virus was the sole creator of all this death and destruction, and it didn’t go away.

Logan Mohtashami is a housing data analyst, financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, was a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data daily on his facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami and is a contributor for HousingWire.