AD Data: Jobs & The Financial Stress Index


Today the BLS reported that 4.8 million jobs were created in June, a beat of the estimates of 2.9 million. The previous job gains were also revised higher. Badala

From the BLS:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 11.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In June, employment in leisure and hospitality rose sharply. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health
services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services.”

From BLS:
July Jobs

The U6 Rate, while historically high,  has come down from its recent peak.

From Doug Short:
July U6

Jobless claims were also reported today, and we saw an increase in that data line while the rate of growth has slowed from the peak of this disaster.

From DOL:

In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,427,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 1,480,000 to 1,482,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,503,750, a decrease of 117,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 1,620,750 to 1,621,250.

From Doug Short:

625 jobless 1

Continuing claims have fallen from the peak; once this chart goes down noticeably, it will be a very bullish event for the U.S. economy getting back to BC (Before Coronavirus) data.

From Fred:

72 CC claims

The St. Louis Financial Stress Index, which is part of my AB (America Is Back) model, has made an excellent recovery to below zero. It has risen in the last 3 weeks. However, as long as we are below 1.21% here, we should be ok. Today standing at 0.2526%. Zero is considered to be normal stress.

From Fred:
72 0.2526 ST Stress

ST Louis Breakdown 2 model

I understand that some of you are skeptical about how jobs could return with jobless claims rising still even though continuing claims have fallen from their peak. Permanent job loss is growing in America, and we have this new burst in Covid19 cases in many states that have required specific sectors of our economy to shutdown and preventing the opening of others.

Remember, we still have a lot of work to do as a country, and this new breakout in cases is not helping. Before this increase of new cases, 3 out of my 5 AB (America is Back) factors were heading in the right way. We were making good progress, and it’s all about this virus, everything else will take care of itself once we defeat this devil.

AB model update here:

I am pleading with all of you, let’s get back on track before September 1st with this virus. Just like I thought we could flatten the curve before May 18th, I believe we can do this again. This means teamwork, folks. Let’s send all these American bears back to the dark abyss where they belong.

Logan Mohtashami is a housing data analyst, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, was a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data daily on his Facebook page and is a contributor for HousingWire.