Today the Census reported an excellent beat in new home sales, which now has created another V shape recovery in the housing market for 2020. It amazes me how quiet the housing bubble boys have gotten this year. Oh well, there is always next year!
From Census:
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in June 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 776,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 13.8 percent (±17.8 percent)* above the revised May rate of 682,000 and is 6.9 percent (±13.7 percent)*
above the June 2019 estimate of 726,000.
Sales Price
The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2020 was $329,200. The average sales price was $384,700.
For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply
The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 307,000. This represents a supply of 4.7 months at the current sales rate. The July report is scheduled for release.
The most critical housing chart we have is the monthly home supply for the new home sales market. This is much different than the existing home sales market, this has much more significant economic implications. Right now, it looks fantastic!
From Fred:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR
Another V shape housing data line is confirmed, this is the new home sales data.
From Fred:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F
The builder’s confidence index is another V-shape recovery data line.
The most recent purchase application data, showed a 19% growth year over year this week. Notice the V shape here, and the last 9 weeks have demonstrated positive year over year growth.
Below is my recent article on HousingWire about the latest existing-home sales report. This sector still has legs for sales to rise.
This is what I wrote on April 10th when I asked everyone to wait until July 15th before passing judgment on the housing market as we are about to get June’s data. Well, we just got the last report of the month for housing.
“These are dark times. But even in dark times, we are preternaturally prepared to see the end of the tunnel. We learned in the human physiology class that the photoreceptors of the human eye can detect a single photon of light. While it may not be until nine or more photos hit the retina that we perceived light, we detect before we can perceive. Likewise, if we are diligent, we will be able to identify the return of hope and light coming back into the American economy before it is perceived by all those poor masked souls around us.”
https://loganmohtashami.com/2020/04/10/ad-data-what-will-it-take-to-crush-home-prices/
Economics is demographics and productivity; the rest is stamp collecting. Housing demographics are driven by Demographics and Mortgage Rates, Years 2020-2024 is the best housing demographic patch ever recorded in history, and as long as mortgage rates stay below 4.5%, we will be fine.
Housing bears need to end this obsession over prices and bubble crash prices.
Below is my recent article on the housing bubble boys.
It’s official: The U.S. won’t see a housing bubble crash anytime soon
As of now, until the end of the year, we have different things to look for regarding housing data, and I promise to go over them every day on my social media sites. However, today, the U.S. housing market is the most outperforming economic sector in the world. My interview on Bloomberg financial this week on this subject below.
Mask up, and have a safe weekend.
Logan Mohtashami is a housing data analyst, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, was a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data daily on his Facebook page .https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami and is a Lead Analyst for HousingWire.