Jobs Recover Even With $600 Enhanced Unemployed Insurance!

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The headline might be tongue in cheek for some. However, it is true, the 3 best jobs report ever recorded in U.S. history all had enhanced $600 unemployment insurance. Don’t overthink this one, just know that this fact will never change.

From BLS:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.8 million in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In July, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, government, retail trade, professional and business services, other services, and health care.

A lot of the jobs recovered in the past 3 months have been in positions where the wages were low. So the notion that $600 enhanced benefits would make Americans stay home during a global pandemic is frankly insulting. Especially when we consider some of these Americans were deemed essential workers and risked their lives, providing service for us.

From BLS: 
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm

August JOBS Breakdown

From Advisor Perspective:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/08/07/july-jobs-report-1-8m-jobs-added-unemployment-rate-drops-to-10-2
AUgust LPF

Of course, we have a lot of work to do as a country. However, we have made some progress. The sector V shape recovery charts are no longer just in housing anymore, as I show here.

https://loganmohtashami.com/2020/08/05/the-housing-v-shape-charts-have-company/

However, when you’re dealing with high-velocity data, the future data can be wild as well, especially after the 2nd surge in cases shutdown some business.

My best advice is that if you see harmful data in the next few months, don’t forget the gains that have been made, this was the Bane and Strife of twitter finance in 2009-2012. 

The bulk of the workforce that had been working in February of 2020, Before Coronoavirus, are still employed. Those who are not are getting enhanced benefits while we still have an active virus infecting and killing Americans every day.

The Savings Glut that we had in America is already falling down as people are spending more.

From Advisor Perspectives 
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/07/31/real-disposable-income-per-capita-in-june
August savings rate per event
August DPI

Key: The St. Louis Financial Stress Index is below zero and nowhere near 1.21%. As long as we can stay below 1.21%, credit stress will be ok.

From Fred: 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI2

86 Stress -0.2931
86 Stress Long -0.2931
716 ST Modelggggg

It’s going to be a crazy 5 months until 2021. The data is going to be wild, we have an election, trying to open schools, football season and all this with the virus is still here with us.  I talk about this recently with HousingWire and could mortgage rates on the 30-year fix get below 2%

What would it take to see mortgage rates drop below 2%?

Remember:

Be the detective, not the troll! 

Have a safe weekend and mask up!

One final note:

My housing bubble boys, I haven’t heard from you in months. Send me a tweet, so I know you’re ok and safe.

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Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, was a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987.