Job Gains Press On



Job growth came in at a historically high level running at 1.4 million; however we are losing some steam as the easier job gains coming from the worst collapse ever have been had. The last four months look like this

May 2,725,000
June 4,781,000
July 1,734,000
August 1,371,000

From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.4 million in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In August, an increase in government employment largely reflected temporary hiring for the 2020 Census. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, in professional and business services, in leisure and hospitality, and in education and health services.

We need roughly 11,549,000 jobs to get back to BC (Before Coronavirus) Era and then need to grow the economy to add more jobs after.

From Fred:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS



As you can see below, we did get a boost from government workers, and most of the jobs recovered have been in sectors that have been the hardest.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm

The unemployment rate stands at 8.4%.



Even though 4 of my 5 AB (America is Back) economic model variables have been met to a degree, we still have a lot of work to do to get back to the BC ( Before Coronavirus) ERA. This is why I made rule number 1, don’t talk about the general shapes of the recovery now because you will miss early economic recovery signs. This, of course, happened big time, especially on twitter finance.

Updated Model Can Be Found Here :

https://loganmohtashami.com/2020/08/15/america-is-back-economic-model-update-part-iii/

However, at some point, the easy early gains in the data will be had, and we will need to earn more job growth with more demand for labor. Of course, the U.S. economy won’t be running at full capacity as long as we have an active virus infecting and killing people every day. However, this doesn’t mean we can’t make more progress. Disaster relief is always a must for those who are the most vulnerable to this pandemic. At some point in the future, we can provide a massive stimulus plan that can get us back to the BC era and beyond.


From AdvisorPerspective:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/09/04/the-big-four-economic-indicators-august-employment


We still have a lot of work to do with a lot of drama ahead of us in the next few months. Have a safe holiday weekend, and be vigilant and mindful of others. We always win as a country when we come together.

From your viewing entertainment my recent interview on Real Vision about the current state of the U.S. Housing Market.


https://www.realvision.com/mohtashami-cities-arent-dying-demography-and-rates-drive-housing?f




Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, was a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987.