The three best job reports ever recorded in history came with $600 unemployment insurance. I say this to remind everyone that the notion that this disaster relief is preventing people from working in mass while a global pandemic is still active is borderline insane.
I say this as someone who wrote an America is Back economic model on April 7th, 2020, showing a model on how things would get better this year. However, as long as we have the virus still infecting and killing people every day, it limits our job growth.
America is Back: Economic Model Update Part III
Disaster relief is a must until we can walk the earth freely again.
From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 661,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In September, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in retail trade, in health care and social assistance, and in professional and business services. Employment in government declined over the month, mainly in state and local government education.
From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm
The total unemployment rate is now at 7.9%.
The unemployment rate for women 20 and over stands at 7.7%.
The unemployment rate for men 20 and over stands at 7.4%.
The unemployment rate most likely is slightly higher due to how this data is being tracked currently but nothing that would take away the recent positive trend.
Roughly 11.4 million jobs have come back from the lows, but as you can see, we still have a ways to go.
A breakdown of today’s report per sector.
The main point I am trying to make here is that most Americans are still working and or getting paid to a degree. We still have an above-trend savings glut that needs to come down, and we have made a comeback this year that most people if they were honest with themselves, did not expect. However, the permanent jobs lost are near 3.8 million now, hence the need for more disaster relief.
From Advisor Perspective:
We have multiple V shape charts in the economy now, but specific sectors can’t run at full capacity yet.
Specific economic sectors will always be at a disadvantage due to Covid19, and they still need disaster relief. The 10-year yield is still under 0.70% and pleading with us that inflation isn’t an issue. Until we get a vaccine out to the American people, disaster relief is needed to make sure no women, man, or child is left behind. Whatever it takes!
Get it done!
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, was a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987.