Before I jump into the job data, we almost had the full AB ( America Is Back) economic model checked off this week as the 10-year yield did get to 0.94% due to the election night drama, currently at 0.83%.
The model was written on April 7th and designated to be checked off in 2020. So, while we haven’t gotten to 1% on the 10-year yield yet, hopefully, you can see how America came back and how so few had faith in this happening in 2020.
https://loganmohtashami.com/2020/08/15/america-is-back-economic-model-update-part-iii/
We have tons of work that needs to be done, as millions of Americans are still unemployed. We still have an active virus infecting and killing Americans every day. We need more disaster relief until we can get a vaccine and treatments ready for all Americans. However, with all that said, how few people had faith in our country in such a horrible year.
Now on to the jobs report.
The BLS: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In October, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction. Employment in government declined.
The census worker drops off is very noticeable here.
From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm
The unemployment rate broken down by education.
4.2% unemployment rate Bachelor’s degree and higher.
6.5% unemployment rate Some college or associate degree.
8.1% unemployment rate High school graduates, no college.
9.8% unemployment rate Less than a high school diploma.
The unemployment rate stands at 6.9%.
For men over the age of 20 it’s 6.7%.
For women over the age of 20 its 6.5%
While the growth rate of jobs is slowing down, once we can walk the earth freely, then the need for labor will follow in those sectors devastated by Covid19.
From Advisor perspective: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/11/06/october-jobs-report-638k-jobs-added-unemployment-rate-drops-to-6-9
This is why it’s essential to keep disaster relief until we can get better treatments and a vaccine. Income and savings rate levels are still higher than Pre Covid19 levels. Every month that moves forward, more Americans have a job with more income to spend. At some point in the future, Covid19 won’t be us any longer.
From Advisor Perspective:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/10/30/real-disposable-income-per-capita-in-september
It’s been a draining year for sure in America. However, be proud that our country and our people never gave up and stood their ground vs. such an enemy. I have always stressed this about my country; our strength has always been our people and our work ethic. Take care of yourself, love each other, and fight for one another; we still have to defeat our real enemy, Covid19. Let’s send this demon, of the devil, back to the dark abyss where all American bears belong.
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, was a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987.
