Before we go into the jobs report, I would like to kindly remind everyone that the three best jobs report ever recorded in history all had $600 extended unemployment insurance. The notion that Americans are lazy people that would sit at home in mass because they don’t want to work is absurd and disrespectful.
Covid19 was the mother of all time short term shocks. The jobs data in the first two months of the year in 2020 was outperforming my estimates by 120,000. However, March and April were different stories as we lost 1.4 million jobs in March and 20.8 million jobs in April. Since then, we have regained 56% of the jobs lost, leaving 9.8 million jobs still lost to this demon of the devil.
However, as I have stressed so much with my AB economic recovery model, we are limited in what the economy can do. We still have an active virus infecting and killing people every day. Job growth is slowing, yes, and we might even see a negative number before the vaccine is here. However, once the vaccine is in, don’t think this is 2008 all over again, and it will take forever to get these jobs back. Don’t forget, the majority of Americans are working; this is a big reason why the housing bears whiffed more in 2020 than at any other time in U.S. economic history.
As we can see below, job growth is cooling off. Disaster relief a must, execution of the vaccine distribution a must, and then once we can all walk the earth freely, then a real stimulus plan to get the last 9.8 million jobs back and more. We got this!
August: 1.5 million
July: 1.8 million
June: 4.8 million
May: 2.7 million
From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 245,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. However, the pace of improvement in the labor market has moderated in recent months. In November, notable job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and health care. Employment declined in government and retail trade.”
From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm
As you can see below we have made some progress with the unemployment rate.
The unemployment rate, broken down by education.
4.2% unemployment rate Bachelor’s degree and higher.
6.3% unemployment rate Some college or associate degree.
7.7% % unemployment rate High school graduates, no college.
9.0% unemployment rate Less than a high school diploma
The jobs data broken down per sector.
From Advisor Perspective: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/12/04/november-jobs-report-245k-jobs-added-unemployment-rate-drops-to-6-7
The 10-year yield right now is at 0.98%; soon, I can write and retire America is back economic model.
The 10-year yield is starting to smell more disaster relief coming. I will address that topic and others in another article once I see a one handle on the 10-year yield. However, make no mistake if we are boasting that we are in a war against Covid19, there should be no lapse in disaster relief until every single America has their job back! No one left behind, ever.
Have a great weekend, my fellow Americans.
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, was a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987.