Today the BLS reported that we created 379,000 jobs last month with positive revisions to the prior reports. This led the 10-year yield to head toward 1.60% as the bond market since last August knew what was coming. For the America is back ,economic model to work we needed to create a range between 1.33% – 1.60% in 2021. This is happening as we speak. So, let’s just wait and see where bond yields close for the day, this range should stick for now.
Economic model here: https://loganmohtashami.com/2020/12/09/america-is-back-the-final-economic-update/
From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 379,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The labor market continued to reflect the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In February, most of the job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, with smaller gains in temporary help services, health care and social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Employment declined in state and local government education, construction, and mining.
This is the breakdown of the jobs in this report.
From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm
As you can see below, the unemployment rate for those that don’t have a high school diploma has risen a tad, while those with a 4-year college degree are now below 4%.
The unemployment rate for less than a high school diploma 10.1%, and this has increased slightly recently. High school graduate, no college 7.2%. Some college or associate degree 6.2%. Bachelors degree or higher 3.8%.
From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/unemployment-rates-for-persons-25-years-and-older-by-educational-attainment.htm
As I discussed in my last jobs report article, this is all the Calm Before The Storm. Soon we will all walk the earth freely and get to do what we want while the American bears from last April sit in the corner of their dim light home crying that the collapse of America and housing didn’t happen while their kids are throwing a cabbage at them.
We still have a lot of work to do, but our economy would resemble an economy with a 10-year yield north of 2.42%, not 1.60%, if you look at the recent economic data. Still, Covid19 has its grip on a few economic sectors, but in time, it won’t. Also, schools will be reopening soon as well.
Remember, we are early in this economic expansion; yes, the recession ended last year. The vaccination process is picking up, and soon we will walk the earth freely, and the need for labor on all those sectors still impacted by Covid19 will rebound quickly.
Have a great weekend!
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, was a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987.