For 2021 on the economy I have 3 big themes that should be transparent.
1. The 10-year yield needs to create a range between 1.33%-1.60%; this was the final nail in the Coffin in my America Is Back economic recovery model that I wrote on April 7th, 2021. Clearly, we have achieved this goal, and the 10-year yield rise has stalled out around the 1.55%-1.75% range.
When the jobs report came in the 10-year yield fell to 1.48% and currently at 1.58%. If the 10-year yield closes above 1.55% it’s pretty much yawning at this report as it should.
2. We will get all the jobs back lost to Covid19 By September 2022 or earlier. We are still well on track to do that even with this jobs report being a miss and the previous month showing a negative revision. A lot of our economic data looks much better now then even Pre Covid19. However, rate of growth of some of these data lines should be peaking. Also, don’t ever forget, ignore all year over year data this year, the comps are too wild both positive now and negative later on in the year.
3. Job openings should get to 10,000,000 in this expansion. People, don’t forget the Boomers are aging out of the labor force, they need to be replaced. This is a common tweet I have been doing a lot on Twitter for months. I know some people will say that this report shows that we are paying people not to work. Remember, always, that the best jobs print we will ever have in our lifetime had $600 unemployment insurance attached to it. I am not blinded to the reality that the urgency to work when you’re getting paid to stay home is not there for some, with higher than average extended unemployment benefits. I just don’t believe that Americans, in general, are that lazy or soft, and the jobs data since last year show this. Also, the extended benefits end in September. We are getting closer and closer to being able to walk the earth freely, not there just yet but getting close. Covid19 has created a lot of dislocations in the economy. We have chips shortages, lumber prices off the charts, child care issues, and a host of others variables. This should work itself out; this is a big reason I said September 2022 or earlier in getting all the jobs back. We are good here; we just need more time. Don’t forget that the world economies are not doing as well as ours, as some countries are still dealing with Covid19.
From the BLS: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, other services, and local government education were partially offset by employment declines in temporary help services and in couriers and messengers.
This the breakdown on the jobs in this report.
From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm
As you can see below, wage growth for Leisure and Hospitality jobs are picking up as well as hours worked.
As I always say, be the detective, not the troll. Don’t put too much weight on any one report both positive or negative, follow the trend. We have a made great comeback since last April and we are very early in this economic expansion. Try to stay away from the ideological takes on social media sites and let the numbers guide you without human emotion. If we don’t get all the jobs back by September 2022 I will so eat my words and will have to explain what I got wrong. However, I gave that date for a reason.
Just like what I meant what I said last year on April 7th, 2020, that America will be back in 2020.
“I believe the months of April and May are going to tell an epic story of America’s start in defeating this virus. If we do this right and document the cause and effect of our efforts, future generations will be able to look to this period in time for how to handle a global pandemic.“
“My faith in America winning has never let me down because I always believe in my people and country. I can tell you now, this virus isn’t changing my view on that.”
Have a great weekend!
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, was a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987.