My 2021 theme in my prediction article for this year was.
“Hope smiles from the threshold of the year to come, whispering ‘it will be happier’…”
― Alfred Lord Tennyson
National Portrait Gallery London 2018.
Obviously, last year was an extremely challenging year for the United States of America and the world. However, having the faith that I did in my country and my people, I knew we could see a recovery last year, as I showed with my American is Back economic model written on April 7th, 2020, with this one key section.
Remember, our demographics are much better going into this crisis event, and so was our household balance sheets. Demographics and credit are very critical to the United States Of America. This has been a big theme of my work over the years, especially with housing with my 2020-2024 theme.
Today after a solid jobs report we still need 6,800,000 jobs left to go before we get all the jobs lost due to Covid19, which I still believe will happen by September 2022 or earlier. The 10-year yield is at 1.44% currently, and that looks perfectly normal to me.
To my fellow American bears who trolled the United States during a global pandemic, may history and your family and friends remember when the time came to stand your ground and believe in your country, you chose to troll instead of following economic data. However, with that said, I wish nothing but the best for you and your family. As always, we are all part of the same team.
Today, the BLS reported 850,000 jobs: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 850,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, professional and business services, retail trade, and other services.“
Breakdown of the job gains. Another soft month for construction, those darn robots and immigrants seem not to be taking all the jobs.
From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm
A big theme of mine on Twitter for a while is that we should see JOLTS ( Job Openings) 10,000,000, and we might get it in the next report—job openings at 9,300,000.
Manufacturing job openings look like a home price growth chart.
We are early in the economic expansion, don’t forget that. Next year we should get some fiscal stimulus spending. However, even without that, our household formation economics really showed its muscle during this brief recession and fast recovery. As long as you weren’t stuck in 2008 mode, you would have been fine. We still have a lot of work to do, and the rate of growth in GDP and a lot of economic data probably has peaked. However, slow and steady wins the race.
The St. Louis Financial Stress Index won’t be this calm forever, but what a difference a year makes. Remember, zero is considered normal stress; we have had times when we have breached over zero but had no recession.
Everyone, enjoy the 4th of July, we all did this together, one team, one nation, one family. We sent the American bears back to their graves again! Have fun, off to catch a flight here!
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, was a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987.