Today’s podcast goes into the question of when will home prices fall and what does the inventory situation look like today. Of course, I admit my structured model bias here, and I need home prices to fall for my 2020-2024 price growth model work. So, it doesn’t look good for me until certain things happen. I talk about that and the history of why didn’t inventory grow since 2012.
I also discussed the massive move in mortgage rates, which is historical, and my recession red flag model here.
I am no longer writing for my blog; all my work can be found at HousingWire; you can use my LoganVIP50 code to join HousingWire Plus.
However, this time, HousingWire has made this one article not part of HousingWire Plus; it’s my detailed historical look at inventory and looking back at all the reasons housing was supposed to crash but didn’t. We have a lot of data here for everyone to read; hopefully, this explains that the growth rate of home prices has a lot to do with inventory breaking to all-time lows right when our big demographic patch kicked in. This was also why I had been concerned about home prices in the years 2020-2024
Hopefully, the article above will explain why I was a bit worried about home prices taking off.
“We have always held to the hope, the belief, the conviction that there is a better life, a better world, beyond the horizon.” Franklin D. Roosevelt
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, spends his days and nights looking at charts and nothing else.