Today’s podcast covers certain things to remember about housing when we enter the next recession.
Regarding today’s builder’s confidence survey data which had a waterfall collapse.
- What can cool down housing market, the summer of 2020? 10-year yield above 1.94%. Add the massive price increases we saw from 2020-2022; you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know what is coming.
2. What happened in March of 2022? The 10-year yield broke above 1.94% with duration, and even though rates were still historically low, it didn’t matter; the new home sales were at risk.
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3. Last month, I raised the 5th Recession Red Flag as the new home sales sector, and the construction cycle ended. This was before the significant drop in HMI today.
Be the detective, not the troll.
“We have always held to the hope, the belief, the conviction that there is a better life, a better world, beyond the horizon.” Franklin D. Roosevelt
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, spends his days and nights looking at charts and nothing else