Podcast: A Case Against A Mortgage Rate Lockdown?

Today’s podcast covers a case against the mortgage rate lockdown premise that I talked about recently. Also, is the Fed putting lower-income workers at a higher risk with their aggressive Fed rate hikes.


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I recently wrote about the case to be made for a mortgage rate lockdown, something I never believed in for many reasons. However, the new listing data falling as fast and as much as it has since the end of June opened my eyes to this possibility.


A mortgage rate lockdown is the last thing I want to see happen, but it’s the reality of our world if it does. Housing post-2020, we had too many people chasing too few homes. I believe people forget that we had no seasonal inventory push in 2020, and we broke to all-time lows then. That can facilitate unhealthy home price growth. The only reason we will go up in 2022, possibly 10% total home price growth for the year, is that we started the year at all-time lows in inventory

Mike Simonsen 

@mikesimonsen Home prices holding steady as a few more homes hit the market this week A little bounce in inventory up to 552,000 single family homes unsold on the market 26% more homes than last year 43% fewer than 2019! Here’s the @AltosResearch

Mike Simonsen 


Home prices were unchanged this week The median price of single family homes in the US is $439,900 The price of the new listings rose to $399,000 Four more weeks around this plateau before prices recede for the winter

Of course, what else can go wrong in housing? A mortgage rate lockdown. I know, first-world problems, but as someone who wants to see balance in housing, this can complicate things in 2023. The last thing we want in America is for people to believe how crazy someone would be to sell their home for a much higher rate and total housing payment. In any case, it will be an exciting spring of 2023.


“We have always held to the hope, the belief, the conviction that there is a better life, a better world, beyond the horizon.” Franklin D. Roosevelt

Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, spends his days and nights looking at charts and nothing else