Today’s podcast goes over the recent purchase application data, which has found some footing due to lower mortgage rates. However, as always, context is critical with looking at this data line which is always forward-looking 30-90 days.
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I recently wrote about the purchase application data that needs a lot of contexts or it can be unclear. For months before October, I talked about how we would have high year-over-year comps from October to January because we had a rare volume drive last year; this explains some of the more significant year-over-year declines. I was looking for 35%-45% year-over-year declines to be the norm, with a possible chance of -53%-57% year-over-year if the data got weaker. So far, the declines have been between 39%-46%, year over year. However, rates have fallen recently. Everything looks about right with where trend sales were going into the fall and winter. However, context is also needed for the footing this data line has found.
“We have always held to the hope, the belief, the conviction that there is a better life, a better world, beyond the horizon.” Franklin D. Roosevelt
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, a financial writer, and a blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, spends his days and nights looking at charts and nothing else