Today’s podcast goes over all the drama in the financial markets but goes over the tug-of-war in the bond market and mortgage rates. My 2023 forecast had a simple premise if the economic data stayed firm, then the 10-year yield should remain in a range between 3.21% – 4.25%, meaning mortgage rates should be between 5.75%- 7.25%, assuming the spreads were vast. Also, we have a Gandlaf line in the sand, meaning this critical level on the bottom range might be harder to break than some people think.
As you can see below, with today’s action on the 10-year yield, that line in the sand has still held up.
Part of the 2023 forecast was that if the economy breaks, meaning jobless claims head toward 323,000 on the 4-week moving average, bond yields will head lower and should take us toward 2.73%. So far, the economy hasn’t broken yet, the economic data has been firm recently, and jobless claims are still below 200K. The question is, will the banking crisis create enough credit contraction to get us there?
Every Monday for HousingWire, we bring out the weekly HousingWire Tracker report, where I take a deep dive into the current and forward-looking housing data lines so you can be up to date with the data lines that matter in housing. If you would like to join HW plus to have access to the tracker, please use my LoganVIP20 code.
“Keep your face always toward the sunshine and shadows will fall behind you” Walt Whitman
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, a financial writer, and a blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, spends his days and nights looking at charts and nothing else