Today’s podcast goes over why I believe the Fed cares more about a higher unemployment rate than the better inflation data we have seen recently. I am staying consistent with my premise that the Fed won’t pivot until the labor market breaks, which is 323,000 on the jobless claims data on a four-week moving average. A pivot isn’t rate cuts for me; it’s a change of language from the Fed first because, historically, they’re slow to move at first.
Some recent inflation data shows we are heading in the right direction. Over the next 12 months, the disinflation from shelter inflation will take hold.
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Yesterday I wrote about the CPI report and tied some historical charts about inflation with the article.
“Keep your face always toward the sunshine and shadows will fall behind you” Walt Whitman
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, a financial writer, and a blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, spends his days and nights looking at charts and nothing else