Podcast: The Labor Market & Mortgage Rates

Today’s podcast reviews the recent labor report and its impact on mortgage rates since my 2023 forecast with the 10-year yield and mortgage rates runs with a specific 10-year channel and labor data.

I was looking for the 10-year yield to range between 3.21%- 4.25%, which means 5.75%- 7.25% rates this year until the jobless claims data broke over 323,000 on the four-week moving average, which should take us toward 2.73% on the 10-year yield. I also stressed that the line in the sand I coined the Gandalf Line, “You shall not pass,” will hold until labor breaks.

So far, 2023 looks about right, except the banking crisis has put more stress on the mortgage market, making the spreads worse this year.


Every Sunday for HousingWire, we bring out the weekly HousingWire Tracker report, where I take a deep dive into the current and forward-looking housing data lines so you can be up to date with the data lines that matter in housing. If you would like to join HW Plus to have access to the tracker, please use my LoganVIP20 code.


“Keep your face always toward the sunshine and shadows will fall behind you” Walt Whitman

Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, a financial writer, and a blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, spends his days and nights looking at charts and nothing else