In today’s podcast, I delve deeper into my housing forecast for 2025, which aligns closely with the HousingWire Forecast but includes more specific details. Here are two key points discussed in the episode:
– Mortgage rates are expected to range between 5.75% and 7.25%.
– The 10-year yield is projected to be between 3.80% and 4.70%.
The “Hodor line” of 3.80% held up well throughout 2024, as the “Gandalf line” of 3.37% held well in 2023. As always, to dip below the 3.80% mark with duration, we will need to see economic weakness or market stress.
I initially underestimated home prices in 2024, with my national forecast of a 2.33% increase appearing a bit low for the year. In the podcast, I provide more details on my national home price forecast of 1.77%.
For those in Texas, the HousingWire Economic Summit is coming in February. It will bring together an impressive lineup of talented speakers for an inspiring day. You can register for this transformative event using the link below. Along with Mike Simonsen and myself, here are just a few remarkable speakers who will share their insights.
Jessica Lautz Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Of The NAR
Barry Habib CEO MBS Highway
Selma Hepp Chief Economist for CoreLogic
Daryl Fairweather Chief Economist For Redfin
Registration Link: https://events.housingwire.com/Housing-Economic-Summit?promo=chartdaddy
“In three words, I can sum up everything I’ve learned about life: it goes on.” -Robert Frost.
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, a financial writer, and a blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, spends his days and nights looking at charts and nothing else.