Longest Job Expansion Continues: 83 Months

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Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported jobs data for August 2017. Payroll employment was below expectations at 156,000. We saw big negative revisions of 41,000 to the data reported for prior months as well.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 156,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was
little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in
manufacturing, construction, professional and technical services, health care, and mining. ” 

For 2017,  I anticipated  that we would create approximately 140K-170K (on average) jobs monthly, so even with the recent negative revisions,  we are still beating my expectations and are well above what is needed for our population growth.

Here are some data from today’s job report from BLS:

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm#

Below is a breakdown by sector of the job gains this month.

September Job Break Down

We see from that data that, as always, education matters. Nevertheless, unemployment for high school drop outs is down to a cycle low of 6% and we are 0.2% away from the previous cycle low of 5.8%.

SEPTEMBER EDUCATION RATE

Below is a breakdown of pay by sector:

September Job Income breakdown
This report continues the longest job expansion in history.

83… As in 83 consecutive months of jobs growth, by far the longest streak in history.

SEPT 83

Look for hurricane Harvey to impact unemployment claims as did 9/11, Katrina and Sandy.  The next job’s report will begin to show the Harvey impact. However, the trend for 2017 is still solid and we are making new records every month.

One note on the Fed rate hikes, I don’t believe we need or will see another Fed rate hike in 2017. Inflation is falling on a YoY basis and with rent inflation falling as well we won’t see  the PCE reach 2% in 2017. The Fed should stop at the two rate hikes.

From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/08/31/two-measures-of-inflation-and-fed-policy

September CPI and PCE

Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing marketLogan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group,  which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data  daily on his own facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami