Longest Job Expansion Continues: 105 Months

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Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported jobs data for June 2019. Payroll jobs grew at 224,000, which means that the longest job expansion streak continues, now for 105 months. The job numbers were a beat from expectations.  On a year to date basis, the jobs data is still beating my 2019 forecast running now at 172,166 jobs per month.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 224,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

For 2019 I predicted this:

“I expect job creation numbers to fall but stay in the range of 137,000 – 157,000 per month.”

https://loganmohtashami.com/2018/12/29/2019-economic-housing-predictions/

On a 3 month average, we are still 14,000 above my highest level range for monthly job creation numbers running at 171,000.

This a breakdown of the jobs created for the last month.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm

Jobs Break down 1

This is a look at the earnings breakdown for the previous month.

From BLS:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-and-average-weekly-earnings-by-industry-bubble.htm

Jobs Chart 2

Wage growth is running at 3.1% on a 12-month average. The 3-month average running at 2.8%. This means we have a substantial real wage growth since headline CPI inflation has been falling from the recent highs. Lower oil prices will boost the real average hourly wage data.

 Atlanta Fed:
https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/labor-report-first-look/?panel=1&s=tw

atlanta-fed_labor-report-snapshot_average-hourly-earnings

Job growth continues to outperform my expectations. We are producing near over double the number of jobs needed for population growth. This is a true reflection of our American work ethic, especially considering the duration of this economic cycle.

Today, the U6 Unemployment Rate is still below the pre-recession lows.

From Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/07/05/june-jobs-report-224k-new-jobs-beats-forecast

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Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group,  which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data  daily on his own facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami