Job Growth Slowing Down Toward My 2019 Forecast


For 2019 I predicted this:

“I expect job creation numbers to fall but stay in the range of 137,000 – 157,000 per month.” 

With today’s jobs report and revisions, the year to date jobs are running at 165,142, and the 3-month average is 139,666.

Still, today, we are beating my expectations, and the longest job expansion continues at 106 months as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported jobs data for July 2019 coming in at 164,000.

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 164,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services, health care, social assistance, and financial activities.

This a breakdown of the jobs created for the last month.


From BLS:

Wage growth is running at 3.2% on a 12-month average. The 3-month average is running at 3.4%. Lower oil prices will boost the real average hourly wage data.

Job growth, while slowing down, continues to outperform my expectations. We are producing roughly double the number of jobs needed for population growth. This is a true reflection of our American work ethic, especially considering the duration of this economic cycle.

Today, the U6 Unemployment Rate is still below the pre-recession lows.

From Doug Short:


Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group,  which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data  daily on his own facebook page