Existing Home Sales Beat Nicely

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Today the NAR reported that existing home sales were up 2.5% % from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million in July. Sales were also up  0.6%  from a year ago.

In 2018, I wrote:

“I am looking for sales to trend flat to negative between 4.92- 5.29 million with slightly more inventory in 2019, but not a dramatic difference.”

https://loganmohtashami.com/2018/12/29/2019-economic-housing-predictions/  

The prediction above was made even with my mortgage rate forecast going down this year.

“For 2019, I am sticking to my call that the 10-year yield will channel between 1.60% to 3%.  If world trade gets weaker, we could see the 10-year yield with a 1% handle again.”

With 7 months of data in for 2019, we are trending a tad above 5,270,000  with inventory rising a little year over year in total. However, inventory was down in this report on a month to month basis and year over year a tad.  This looks perfectly in line with what I was looking for. In fact, we are really toward the upper range of my sales trend forecast. My negative growth forecast for existing home sales in both 2018 and 2019 and rising inventory doesn’t surprise me. Some people believe that lower mortgage rates haven’t boosted housing demand. I would have them look at sales trends for new and existing homes toward the end of 2018 and compare that data to now to see how lower mortgage rates helped.

From now until January 2020, we have favorable comps to beat on a year over year basis for existing homes if sales trends just stay the same. As always, please take any positive year over year data lines in the context. This is only happening because last year’s data got weak, don’t overhype the housing data. However, any monthly print over 5,300,000 is a solid beat from my eye.

From the NAR:

Total existing-home sales1https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 2.5% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million in July. Overall sales are up 0.6% from a year ago (5.39 million in July 2018).

Everything looks right to me. I have to remind my readers that housing is always plagued by two houses. They either overhypes short-term data to up and to the downside. We either have super housing bulls or bears, but the actual game was in the middle, which I know isn’t sexy to report.

The reality is that 2019 is already going to be another good year. As long as you maintain a realistic approach to demand. Purchase application data is at cycle highs, but the rate of growth during the heat months year over year was only trending at 3.7%.

From  Doug Short:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/08/21/existing-home-sales-strengthened-in-july

August existing home sales

We are pushing slight growth on a year over year basis now. The comps are going to be very favorable to show growth for the rest of the year.

NAR Research@NAR_Research
Overall sales are up 0.6% from a year ago (5.39 million in July 2018). #NAREHS

August YoY
NAR Research
@NAR_Research

August cash buyers