Last year for myself, It was all about America Is Back economic recovery model, which was written on April 7th, 2020. I truly believed the U.S. economy would come back in 2020. The recovery can be tracked here.
This year the theme was?
“Hope smiles from the threshold of the year to come, whispering ‘it will be happier’…”
― Alfred Lord Tennyson
Which really meant 3 things on the economic side of the equation.
1. The 10-year yield needed to create a range of 1.33%-1.60%. That was a must, and that has already been accomplished. The 10-year yield action since last August should have shown the remaining American bears that their desperate trolling hope of an American collapse was fading away one basis point at a time. Currently at 1.56%.
2. When will we get all the jobs back lost to Covid19?
I truly still believe this to be the case. We should get back the remainder of the jobs lost to Covid19 by September of 2022 or earlier. Today’s job number doesn’t change that mindset. Before the year started, I believed that we should have enough people vaccinated at the end of August to work off a base to get all the jobs back by September 2022. The vaccination process has gone better, but that only means that the August 31st timeline is just moved up to 6 weeks for me. We are getting closer and closer to being able to walk the earth freely. I recently went to Las Vegas, and only now have they taken away the wearing the mask policy. In time we will get there; however, jobs will always lag the other economic data. Most Americans were always working during the crisis, and most Americans are always working as we are recovering.
3. Those who follow me on Twitter know about my 10,000,000 Job openings or JOLTS tweets that I have done for some time. Jobs openings are at 8,123,000 currently, and we should see a 10,000,000 JOLTS print in this expansion. Don’t forget; the baby boomers are near their end; they need to be replaced. Robots and immigrants didn’t take away all the jobs as some have said and since people age and then die, those people need to be replaced. We don’t have a Dorian Gray labor force market place.
On to the jobs report!
From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 559,000 in May, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in public and private education, and in health care and social assistance.”
We have created 2,391,000 jobs so far in 2021 and do expect some more revisions to come.
Here are the breakdowns of the jobs created and lost in this report.
From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm
The unemployment rate based on educational attainment.
Less than a high school diploma 9.1%
High School Graduates, no college 6.8%
Some College or associate degree 5.9%
Bachelor’s degree and higher 3.2%
From BLS: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/unemployment-rates-for-persons-25-years-and-older-by-educational-attainment.htm
Of course as the unemployment rate falls and the economy recovers the stock market recovers as well.
I wanted to give some props to the trading nation out there, you all have done great in this environment. Much respect for all of you and always ignore the haters as I am there with you all 100%. Technology has changed the world for us and this environment is perfectly suited for us.
Considering the other economic data, the U.S. economy has been doing well, rebounding from the Covid19 lows. Retail sales, manufacturing data, and the leading economic index have shown a historic comeback.
Now, of course, we always want to #IgnoreAllYearOverYearData due to Covid19 lows; the comps were too low and will be too high later on this year. However, as you can see, a truly epic comeback and a horrible 2021 for the American bears. The rate of growth in a lot of economic data, including GDP, will peak in 2021. However, don’t forget, we are early in the economic expansion. Remember, our edge here in America is mother demographics, we have replacement workers and consumers.
I gave two podcast interviews that I gave yesterday, one for HousingWire, which has an overall take on the recovery, the housing market, and if you should buy a home in this market.
and one for Macro-To-Micro Power Hour: Rocking Real Estate Revisited, with Samantha LaDuc
Everyone, enjoy the weekend and have some fun!
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, was a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group, which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987.