Today’s podcast goes over what housing will look like when we are in a recession—also, I discussed my concern about rates falling again and slowing down the inventory growth. The first thing I want for the housing market is to get total inventory back in a range of 1.52 – 1.93 million, so I take off the savagely unhealthy housing market title.
NAR: Total Inventory Data
I know that 1.52-1.93 million total inventory is just the 4 decade low levels of inventory. However, trust me, the market will be less savage when we get back 2018/2019 levels.
For some who don’t understand why I keep on saying it’s a savagely unhealthy housing market. For the years 2020-2024, I had put a firm limit of 23% cumulative home price growth limit for this period. Unlike the previous expansion, I didn’t need to worry about breakaway prices, but the years 2020-2024 were always different.
If home prices break above this level, which they did by year 2, it’s a savagely unhealthy negative outcome. So, I need prices to fall over the next 2.5 years to get my model back in line. Let’s see how that is looking this year?
From Realtor.com: https://www.realtor.com/research/june-2022-data/
I am no longer writing for my blog; all my work can be found at HousingWire; you can use my LoganVIP50 code to join HousingWire Plus. Here is a recent article about how my mindset on getting what I want home price declines. Always remember, it’s a process, and variables changes; the journey doesn’t go a straight path
Recently on Atlos Research, Mike Simonsen and I reviewed our takes on how supply grows back to normal. I am a bit more bullish on supply growth than others, but I need my variables to stick. Mike and I also discussed our takes on what housing look like during a recession
Finally, Happy 4th Of July, Everyone! Yes, I know I am a bit much at times with my Pro USA theme, and let me tell you, that will never change. I will leave you with what I said on April 7th, 2020, when I wrote America Is Back Recovery Model in our darkest days.
“My faith in America winning has never let me down because I always believe in my people and country. I can tell you now, this virus isn’t changing my view on that.”
“We have always held to the hope, the belief, the conviction that there is a better life, a better world, beyond the horizon.” Franklin D. Roosevelt
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, spends his days and nights looking at charts and nothing else.