Today’s podcast covers one recent talking point very near and dear to my heart. Was it the supply issue that created the massive home price gains post-2020 or was it record-breaking demand? Of course, staying true to my work, I don’t believe in the U.S. credit or sales boom premise, and I give my perfect simple example here.
During the housing bubble, inventory was much higher, with rising credit demand, increasing sales, and less home price growth.
NAR Total Inventory Data:
As we can see here, inventory has been falling since 2014. Then we broke to all-time lows in inventory at the worst time possible, years 2020 and on.
As you can see below, we never had the equal credit or sales boom as we did from 2002-2005 in the years 2020-2022.
The growth rate in pricing was much hotter in the 2.5 years now than we saw during the housing bubble years. Remember, don’t overcomplicate this story; keep it simple.
I also discussed the credit availability index, which I recently wrote about with many exciting charts on this subject.
I am no longer writing for my blog; all my work can be found at HousingWire; you can use my LoganVIP50 code to join HousingWire Plus.
Tomorrow I will CNBC talking about the state of the U.S. housing market. The program will start at 3:00 PM pacific; I believe my portion will be around the 3:24 PM
“We have always held to the hope, the belief, the conviction that there is a better life, a better world, beyond the horizon.” Franklin D. Roosevelt
Logan Mohtashami is a Lead Analyst for Housing Wire, financial writer, and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. Logan Mohtashami, now retired, spends his days and nights looking at charts and nothing else.