Wage Growth Hits Cycle High

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Today the Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) jobs report was released showing a gain of 156,000 jobs with the U.S. unemployment rate standing at 4.7%.  Additionally, the U.S. hit a cycle  high in hourly average earnings, which increased 2.9%, year over year.

Payroll employment rises by 156,000 in December; unemployment rate changes little (4.7%)

Now standing at 75 consecutive months of job growth, we are experiencing the longest streak of job growth in history.

75… As in 75 consecutive months of jobs growth, by far the longest streak in history.

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U.S. economy has added jobs for 75 straight months, shattering the previous record of 48 months in the late 1980s.

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From Calculated Risk:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017/01/december-employment-report-156000-jobs.html

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For the last 2 years, I have reduced my monthly job creation number predictions.  For 2017, I have done so again. I am predicting 140K-170K monthly prints for 2017. Wage growth has hit a cycle high showing the tighter labor force market.

Compelling signals wage pressures are intensifying support the case for more Fed tightening later this year, assuming no Trump policy errors

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US wage pressures likely to continue intensifying. When quits go up, wage pressures tend to follow

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Since the end of 2012, real wages for non-managerial workers have grown nearly 18 times faster than they did from 1980 to 2007.

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A good ‘follow” on twitter:

One last time before Obama leaves office: Nearly all the employment growth in the recovery has been full-time.

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For 2017
, wage growth numbers will be more indicative of the health of the economy than the nominal prints each month. ECI wage inflation is running at 3.9% and over 4% for job switchers. These are the factors that could influence Fed policy at this stage of the economic  cycle.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx?panel=1
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One last word of advice to the American Bears, who have made many, simply silly predictions in this cycle, demonstrating their egregious lack of understanding of how demographics effect the economy: –Brush up on U.S. demographics, my friends,  before President Donald Trump rips you a new one on twitter. 

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Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing marketLogan Mohtashami is a senior loan officer at AMC Lending Group,  which has been providing mortgage services for California residents since 1987. Logan also tracks all economic data  daily on his own facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami